Skip to content

Discover ✨Ask Topics Community 🎓Learn

PredictPal is a neutral, third-party aggregator of public prediction-market data. It is informational only — not affiliated with any platform, and it does not facilitate trading or hold funds. Market data is sourced from each platform’s public API and may be delayed.

Sources: Polymarket · Kalshi · Manifold · PredictIt · Hyperliquid · Myriad · Azuro · Limitless · Futuur · ForecastEx · InsightX · XO Market · Smarkets · SX Bet · Metaculus

Compare odds across venues·Resolved markets·How it works·Support·Privacy Policy·Terms of Service

Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 28 | PredictPal · PredictPal

🏛️

Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 2855 US elections 1715 President ✨ 700 Republican ✨ 250 Foreign politics 238 Future US Presidents 211 US Political Timelines 111 Political ✨ 81 Presidential Candidacy 64 Leader Tenure Predictions 60 Person of the Year Awards 11

1,075 markets · page 28 of 45

Kalshi

Open

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028? — Before Jan 1, 2028

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

$2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

‹ Prev1…2627282930…45Next ›

Open

Will LeBron James announce a Presidential run before 2027?

The market's 2% Yes odds reflect that LeBron James is entirely focused on his NBA free agency decision, with no political signals or announcements, making a presidential run before 2027 a remote possibility.

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$15.9K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2029? — Before Jan 1, 2029

Yes43¢

No57¢

Yes ≈ 43% chance

$675 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Chelsea Clinton

Despite the 99% implied probability against a run, Chelsea Clinton has shown no political ambition in decades, making a surprise announcement extremely unlikely—but not impossible given her family's political legacy.

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$13.3K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

$5.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

The 1% odds reflect a market that sees a Dwayne Johnson presidential run as almost impossible, yet the question isn't about plausibility but about any announcement, regardless of filing, which lowers the bar significantly; the recent headlines are entirely focused on his lucrative but struggling film career and personal projects, showing no political signals.

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$10.7K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Papua New Guinea the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2028? — Before Jan 1, 2028

Yes72¢

No28¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

$7.8K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Andrew Yang's recent pivot to entertainment and his praise of Trump policies suggest he is not laying groundwork for a 2028 Democratic primary run, and the market sees zero chance of an announcement by year-end.

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$14.2K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Brian Johnson be confirmed as Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

The market is essentially a coin flip because Johnson's confirmation hinges on whether his past work for companies sued by the CFPB can be overcome by a recusal pledge and a unified Republican Senate, with the live hearing today providing the first real test.

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

$764 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Despite Sanders's strong fundraising and visibility as Arkansas governor, the market sees her 2028 presidential bid as highly unlikely before 2027, reflecting a lack of any exploratory steps or national campaign infrastructure.

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$7.6K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will California statewide elected official or Governor's cabinet member be charged with a fraud crime before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$3.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Josh Hawley announce a presidential run before 2027?

Josh Hawley's odds of a presidential run have dropped to near-zero (3%) despite his high-profile Senate clashes, suggesting his recent activity is focused on legislative oversight and intra-party battles rather than building a national campaign.

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$7.9K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will any Republican member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment before 2029? — Before Jan 20, 2029

Yes53¢

No47¢

Yes ≈ 53% chance

$1K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Will Mike Pence announce a presidential run before 2027?

The market sees Mike Pence's presidential ambitions as effectively dead, with his recent public posture—defending Trump's Iran policy and accepting a local award in Spokane—signaling a retreat from national politics rather than a launch.

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$15.5K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the Canadian carbon tax be repealed before 2027? — Before 2027

Yes2¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$4.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Rand Paul announce a presidential run before 2027?

Rand Paul's current high-profile Senate work and lack of any presidential-run signals keep the market at 93% No, but the odds could shift if he uses upcoming hearings as a platform to test national messaging.

Yes8¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$17.2K Vol5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

Despite Merz's unpopularity, the coalition's recent reform package breakthrough (July 2026) and historical stability of German grand coalitions keep break odds very low at 13%.

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$66.8K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will it be reported by the government of any Canadian province that a Canadian provincial government publicly announces that its province’s general minimum wage is set to increase above C$19.00 per hour before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

$3 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Dan Scavino leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Dan Scavino's recent promotion to head the Presidential Personnel Office (May 26) suggests he is entrenched, yet the market gives 62% odds he leaves by year-end, likely driven by his cryptic post (Jun 1) and the historically high turnover in Trump's orbit.

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

$137 Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Trump impose capital controls before 2029? — Before 2029

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

$5.7K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?

David Sacks remains in the Trump administration despite the fallout from the $3.8 billion Trump memecoin loss and his own policy disagreements, with odds favoring his continued tenure as a reflection of his value to the president's crypto and AI agenda.

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

$8.7K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$1 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Russell Vought

Despite the administration facing major controversies over Iran war costs and the DOGE shutdown, Russell Vought remains firmly in place as OMB director, with no credible signals of departure; the 90% No odds reflect the lack of any resignation rumors or visible friction.

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

$274 Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) become law before Jan 1, 2028? — Before Jan 1, 2028

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$5 Vol▲ 0pts1y