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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 3 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3786 US elections 2657 Foreign politics 400 Political Leader Tenure 336 Future US Presidents 215 US Political Timelines 201 Leader Tenure Predictions 113 US Political Future 105 Presidential Candidacy 71 US Political Milestones ✨ 30 Person of the Year Awards 12 Sports & Political Leadership 10

1,057 markets · page 3 of 45

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Trump threaten to restrict British access to Trident ballistic missiles before 2029?

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

Ɱ404 Vol2y

InsightX

Open

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Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Yes100¢

No0¢

Yes ≈ 100% chance

$923K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes26¢

No74¢

Yes ≈ 26% chance

$165K Vol5mo

Polymarket

Open

Pete Buttigieg

Yes11¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$13.5K Vol▼ 3pts5mo

InsightX

Open

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Yes64¢

No36¢

Yes ≈ 64% chance

$500K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Joe Biden be photographed using a mobility aid (e.g. a cane) before 2029?

Yes69¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 69% chance

Ɱ581 Vol2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027? — Before 2027

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$36.3K Vol5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

$24.5K Vol▲ 10pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

"Donald Trump US president at any point between Jan 21, 2029, and Jan 20, 2033?"

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol6y

Kalshi

Open

Will Susie WIles leaves Chief of Staff in before 2027? — Susie Wiles

Yes26¢

No74¢

Yes ≈ 26% chance

$172K Vol5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Yes9¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$43.4K Vol▼ 3pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate before 2029?

Yes57¢

No43¢

Yes ≈ 57% chance

Ɱ466 Vol2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Andy Burnham announce their departure as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$11.6K Vol5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

$159K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Trump will die before 2027

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ14.1K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI in before 2027?

Yes33¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

$1.2M Vol5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027?

Yes9¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$15.4K Vol▼ 2pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin meet before Jan 20, 2029? — Before Jan 20, 2029

The market is essentially a coin flip because while Trump's engagement with Zelenskyy at the NATO summit signals potential US-brokered diplomacy, there is no evidence of any direct channel to Putin and Russia continues to frame the conflict as a war with NATO, making a face-to-face meeting unlikely in the near term.

Yes37¢

No63¢

Yes ≈ 37% chance

$92.5K Vol2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will European investors face restrictions on their US stock holdings due to political risks before 2029?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ2.2K Vol2y

Polymarket

Open

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$1.2M Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? — Before 2027

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

$291K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will South Africa have another presidential election before 2029?

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ897 Vol2y

Polymarket

Open

Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?

Yes6¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$67.2K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$1.3M Vol5mo