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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 33 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3965 US elections 2858 Foreign politics 458 Political Leader Tenure 364 Future US Presidents 233 US Political Timelines 206 Leader Tenure Predictions 121 US Political Future 108 Presidential Candidacy 78 Person of the Year Awards 15 Sports & Political Leadership 10

1,062 markets · page 33 of 45

Kalshi

Open

Will legislation that abolishes U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement as a federal agency become law before Jan 1, 2027? — Abolish ICE

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

‹ Prev1…3132333435…45Next ›

Visible identification

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$16.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will legislation that prohibits ICE agents conducting immigration enforcement operations from wearing facial coverings, with limited exceptions become law before Jan 1, 2027? — Mask ban

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$8.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, White House Chief of Staff) be impeached before Jan 1, 2027? — Before 2027

The market strongly doubts impeachment before year-end (7% Yes) based on no formal resolution filed, a Republican majority House, and speculation about Vice President Vance’s loyalty that hasn't translated into charges.

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$44.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, White House Chief of Staff) be impeached before Jan 20, 2029? — Before Jan 20, 2029

Yes75¢

No25¢

Yes ≈ 75% chance

$5.6K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will the House impeach a federal judge before 2027? — Before 2027

Yes10¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the independence of the judiciary be weakened during Trump's term? — Before 2029

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

$2.7K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Japan announce any reduction, suspension, or elimination of the current 8% food consumption tax before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes65¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 65% chance

$4.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Kamala Harris run for California Governor? — Before 2027

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$46K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

Will Israel Katz leave Minister of Defense of Israel before Jan 1, 2027? — Before 2027

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

$3.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a binding U.S. federal measure takes effect that generally prohibits or requires federal authorization for private U.S. persons or companies to access, host, or deploy Kimi K3 or a successor Kimi model before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes26¢

No74¢

Yes ≈ 26% chance

$1.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Trump's first announced Labor Secretary pick be confirmed as Secretary of Labor before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes90¢

No10¢

Yes ≈ 90% chance

$5.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Ahmad al-Sharaa

The market heavily discounts a departure because recent diplomatic wins—US terrorism de-listing, chemical weapons voting rights reinstatement, and a pivot toward Kurdish governance—signal that al-Sharaa is consolidating international support, not stepping down.

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$25.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Cyril Ramaphosa

Despite 11% odds of Ramaphosa leaving before 2027, recent headlines show him performing routine duties (commission extensions, foreign visits), suggesting business as usual rather than any imminent departure.

Yes7¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$8.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Claudia Sheinbaum

The market heavily discounts Sheinbaum leaving early because she is in the middle of a normal, active presidency—engaging in diplomatic press conferences, legal disputes with the US, and managing cartel violence—with zero credible reports of resignation or replacement.

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$147K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Daniel Noboa leave President of Ecuador before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$1.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Delcy Rodriguez

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

$20.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Emmanuel Macron

Macron's Syria visit signals a foreign-policy gamble that could either bolster his domestic standing or backfire, but the 8% Yes odds reflect no credible threat of early departure; the real story is the absence of any resignation or removal mechanism in the headlines, making the No bet a near-certainty barring a black-swan event.

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$75K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Friedrich Merz

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$18.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Félix Tshisekedi

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$1.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Frederik X leave King of Denmark before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$3.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Giorgia Meloni

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$7.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Irfaan Ali leave President of Guyana before Jan 1, 2027?

President Ali's active governance schedule and absence of any departure rumors make his exit before year-end extremely implausible, despite the market's binary framing.

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$540 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Jens-Frederik Nielsen

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$9.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo