Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
690 markets · page 4 of 29
Despite calls from figures like Nigel Farage and conditional plans from Andy Burnham, the market heavily discounts a snap UK election in 2026 because the next scheduled election is 2029 and no credible parliamentary mechanism to force an early vote has emerged.
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Yes ≈ 58% chance
The field is moderately concentrated with three front-runners (Campos, Viana, Sávio) collectively polling near the three-seat threshold, but the biggest recent shift is Marília Campos consolidating support after the PT's initial scramble for a candidate (Valor International, Jun 15), turning a chaotic primary into a clear lead.
6 outcomes
The field is moderately concentrated, with 40% on 2026, but the next few years remain competitive; the biggest recent shift likely stems from Starmer's resignation (The Guardian, Jun 22) and Reform's strong local election showing (Oddschecker, May 7), which may have boosted the 2026 probability as Farage could exploit political instability.
4 outcomes
Yes ≈ 47% chance
32 outcomes
The field is moderately concentrated around two heavyweights, Arthur Lira and Renan Calheiros, who together account for 93% implied probability, but with two Senate seats up for grabs, a third candidate like Alfredo Gaspar (27%) remains a viable spoiler. The single biggest recent shift was the removal of former President Collor from contention after his April 2025 arrest and subsequent house arrest (Reuters, May 1, 2025), which likely cleared a path for Lira and Calheiros to dominate.
4 outcomes
Despite Nigel Farage's vocal demand for a snap election, the odds remain low because the ruling Conservatives have no incentive to call one early and the scheduled election is not until 2029.
Yes ≈ 28% chance
Yes ≈ 26% chance
Yes ≈ 11% chance
4 outcomes
The market is highly concentrated on two late-2026/early-2027 exit dates, but the recent catalyst is Toffoli's voluntary recusal from the Banco Master case (Reuters, Feb 13), which reduces immediate pressure for removal and shifts the timeline toward a longer horizon.
2 outcomes
Despite near-certain odds that Nigel Farage will increase his vote share in the Clacton by-election, the real story is the crowded field of rivals—including the satirical Count Binface—that could either fragment the opposition or siphon off protest votes, yet the market sees incumbency and name recognition as overwhelming factors.
Yes ≈ 96% chance
Yes ≈ 7% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
The field is extremely concentrated between two heavyweights — JHC and Renan Filho — with a combined 105% probability, leaving almost no room for others; the biggest recent shift is the emergence of an anti-system former Supreme Court justice (Valor International, May 19), which could fragment the protest vote but has not yet dented the top two.
Yes ≈ 56% chance
Farage's resignation and call for a by-election (Reuters, Jul 9) is the primary catalyst for a snap general election, but the PM's stated opposition (Bloomberg, Jul 6) and public polling against a snap poll (YouGov, Jul 8) keep no odds slightly higher.
Yes ≈ 51% chance
Yes ≈ 36% chance
5 outcomes