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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 4 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3809 US elections 2676 Foreign politics 402 Political Leader Tenure 338 Future US Presidents 215 US Political Timelines 201 Leader Tenure Predictions 113 US Political Future 105 Presidential Candidacy 71 Person of the Year Awards 12 Sports & Political Leadership 10

406 markets · page 4 of 17

Polymarket

Open

Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? — December 31, 2026

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$21.7K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

‹ Prev123456…17Next ›

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027? — Before Oct 1, 2027

AOC is actively fueling 2028 speculation with a deliberate Obama-style rebrand and explicit refusal to rule out a run, but the market still sees a majority chance she holds off—likely because a House member launching a presidential campaign remains historically rare.

Yes64¢

No36¢

Yes ≈ 64% chance

$841 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?

Yes6¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$30.9K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will nuclear energy generation be above 800 TWh in 2028?

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

Ɱ105 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will any Republican member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment before 2028? — Before 2028

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

$1.8K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate?

Yes84¢

No16¢

Yes ≈ 84% chance

$6.7K Vol2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

In what year will Trump be impeached AND removed from office?

The market is heavily concentrated on 'Never' at 91%, reflecting a widespread belief that the political and procedural barriers to a Senate conviction remain insurmountable, despite recent headlines suggesting impeachment talk is growing among Democrats if they win the midterms.

Never.91¢

7 outcomes

Ɱ148K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Ron DeSantis announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Despite a Florida-focused report that DeSantis is 'gearing up' for a 2028 run (Floridian Press, May 12), the market gives only a 9% chance he announces before Jan 1, 2027, reflecting traders' view that his failed 2024 primary bid (BBC, Jan 22, 2024) has severely diminished his standing and that early announcements are rare.

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

$311 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$47.5K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Sara Duterte be out as Vice President of the Philippines before Sep 1, 2026? — Before Sep 1, 2026

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$7.8K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a woman walk on Mars before a woman is president of the United States?

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ7.4K Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?

Yes33¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

$7.6K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Shawn Fain announce their departure as President of the United Auto Workers before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

$18 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Tulsi Gabbard ever be elected President?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ10K Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Will Samuel Garcia be out as Governor of Nuevo Leon by July 31, 2026?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$335 Vol▼ 0pts5d

Kalshi

Open

Will Keiko Fujimori be out as President of Peru before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$600 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a woman be elected as the President of the United States before the end of 2040?

The market assigns a 69% probability to a woman being elected US president by 2040, reflecting a belief that demographic and political trends will eventually break the historical pattern of all-male presidents, but conflicting signals from figures like Pelosi and the lack of a clear frontrunner keep the odds from being higher.

Yes69¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 69% chance

Ɱ11.4K Vol▲ 0pts14y

Polymarket

Open

Will Samuel Garcia be out as Governor of Nuevo Leon by December 31, 2026?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$113 Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Keiko Fujimori be out as President of Peru before Jul 1, 2027? — Before Jul 1, 2027

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$500 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a socialist be elected president by 2040?

Yes43¢

No57¢

Yes ≈ 43% chance

Ɱ268 Vol▲ 0pts14y

Polymarket

Open

Nicușor Dan out as President of Romania in 2026?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$2.5K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Keiko Fujimori be out as President of Peru before Jan 1, 2028? — Before Jan 1, 2028

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$312 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will any of Donald Trump's children be elected to Congress, Vice President, or President of the US by 2050?

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

Ɱ247 Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?

Yes46¢

No54¢

Yes ≈ 46% chance

$6 Vol5mo