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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 4 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3809 US elections 2676 Foreign politics 402 Political Leader Tenure 338 Future US Presidents 215 US Political Timelines 201 Leader Tenure Predictions 113 US Political Future 105 Presidential Candidacy 71 Person of the Year Awards 12 Sports & Political Leadership 10

1,057 markets · page 4 of 45

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election appoint a Supreme Court Justice before 2029

Yes81¢

No19¢

Yes ≈ 81% chance

Ɱ301 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

‹ Prev123456…45Next ›

Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$101K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028? — Before Jan 1, 2028

The market is pricing a 59% chance of impeachment before 2028, but the recent headlines are almost entirely about the ongoing impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte in the Philippines, not the U.S. President, making the odds appear disconnected from the actual resolution condition.

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

$859K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will Trump pardon Stefan Brodie before 2027?

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

$1.9K Vol▲ 16pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Trump declare federal Martial Law in the US before 2029 (given a 2025 presidency)?

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

Ɱ3.3K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Elissa Slotkin

Yes6¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$7.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

$295K Vol▼ 2pts5mo

Manifold· Play🔭 4 venues

Open

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Trump's revived Greenland push remains purely rhetorical, with no diplomatic or legislative steps, keeping the odds at 6% despite a flurry of provocative social media posts and strategic justifications.

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ840 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$185K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

$159K Vol▼ 3pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Yes33¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

The CLARITY Act, the primary crypto market structure bill, is losing momentum as the August recess deadline approaches and President Trump's financial disclosure and new demands erode support, making the 38% Yes odds increasingly vulnerable.

Yes37¢

No63¢

Yes ≈ 37% chance

$736K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz before 2027?

Yes23¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

$2.4K Vol▲ 7pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Donald Trump carry out an invasion of Greenland before 2029?

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ2.5K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Donald Trump visit Iran before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

The market sees a Trump visit to Iran before 2027 as virtually impossible, given active military hostilities, no diplomatic relations, and no travel plans—despite a recent halt in US strikes and a planned Netanyahu meeting that focus on Israel's role, not direct US-Iran engagement.

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$288K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$115K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Clarence Thomas retire from the Supreme Court before 2029?

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

Ɱ700 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? — Before Jan 20, 2029

Yes45¢

No55¢

Yes ≈ 45% chance

$181K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$84.1K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the Senate of the Philippines remove Vice President Sara Duterte from office before 2027?

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ150 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?

Yes8¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$83.3K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Andy Burnham announce their departure as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2028? — Before Jan 1, 2028

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

$4.9K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Donald Trump be pardoned before 2027?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ13.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Ted Cruz announce a presidential run before 2027?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$14.3K Vol▲ 2pts5mo