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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 5 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3809 US elections 2676 Foreign politics 402 Political Leader Tenure 338 Future US Presidents 215 US Political Timelines 201 Leader Tenure Predictions 113 US Political Future 105 Presidential Candidacy 71 Person of the Year Awards 12 Sports & Political Leadership 10

406 markets · page 5 of 17

Kalshi

Open

Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, White House Chief of Staff) be impeached before Jan 1, 2027? — Before 2027

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$44.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

‹ Prev1…34567…17Next ›

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Pete Buttigieg ever be elected President?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ415 Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by December 31?

Yes31¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

$203 Vol▼ 5pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, White House Chief of Staff) be impeached before Jan 20, 2029? — Before Jan 20, 2029

Yes75¢

No25¢

Yes ≈ 75% chance

$5.6K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Nikki Haley ever become the President of the USA?

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Ɱ4.2K Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Will Assimi Goïta be out as President of Mali by December 31, 2026?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

$670 Vol▼ 3pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Ahmad al-Sharaa

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$25.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

The President of the United States in February 2029 will be someone who never had held elected political office prior to 2023.

The market sees a low chance (16%) that the 2029 president will be a political novice, reflecting the dominance of experienced politicians like Trump in the 2028 race, but the odds are in line with the historical base rate of outsiders winning the presidency.

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ263 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Will Assimi Goïta be out as President of Mali by June 30, 2027?

Yes31¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

$261 Vol11mo

Kalshi

Open

Cyril Ramaphosa

Yes7¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$8.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will any past or current president of the United States create a market on Manifold by end of 2050?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ2.6K Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2027?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

$75 Vol11mo

Kalshi

Open

Claudia Sheinbaum

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$147K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?

Yes5¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$165K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will David Sacks ever be elected President?

Yes5¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will Daniel Noboa leave President of Ecuador before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$1.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Nguesso out as President of the Republic of the Congo by December 31, 2026?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$13.3K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Donald Trump be elected president of the US in the 2048 election?

The market's 2% odds reflect Trump's age (102 in 2048) and the absence of any precedent for electing a candidate over 80, not the recent headlines about visa denials or mail-voting rulings, which are irrelevant to a race 22 years away.

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ121K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Delcy Rodriguez

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

$20.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?

Yes7¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$20.1K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Taylor Swift ever be elected President?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ6.3K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Emmanuel Macron

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$75K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?

Yes46¢

No54¢

Yes ≈ 46% chance

$765 Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Ron DeSantis ever be elected President?

Yes7¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Ɱ4.6K Vol▲ 0pts—