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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 5 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3809 US elections 2676 Foreign politics 402 Political Leader Tenure 338 Future US Presidents 215 US Political Timelines 201 Leader Tenure Predictions 113 US Political Future 105 Presidential Candidacy 71 Person of the Year Awards 12 Sports & Political Leadership 10

4,815 markets · page 5 of 201

Polymarket

Open

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?

Yes90¢

No10¢

Yes ≈ 90% chance

$53.2K Vol▲ 13pts3d

Futuur

Open

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Elected governor for Rio Grande do Sul in 2026

The field is moderately concentrated with three candidates holding 79%, but the race remains unsettled because the top two — Zucco (37%) and Brizola (30%) — represent opposing poles (Bolsonaro-aligned right vs. PT-allied left), leaving the center open for Gabriel Souza (12%) or Edegar Pretto (8%) to consolidate if Eduardo Leite's centrist pitch (Valor International, Mar 16) gains traction or if the PPP/concession pipeline restart (BNamericas, Jun 9) becomes a visible state-level issue.

Luciano Zucco42¢

5 outcomes

$270 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Kalshi

Open

Rigged Election / Stolen Election

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

$48.1K Vol▲ 0pts1d

Smarkets

Open

Greater Manchester Mayoral By-Election - Bev Craig To Win

The market is pricing a near-certain Labour hold in the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, reflecting the party's deep local dominance and the absence of a strong challenger, but the real story is whether Bev Craig's policy platform—including wealth tax models and rent controls—could shift the national debate on local governance.

Yes98¢

No2¢

Yes ≈ 98% chance

£3.1K Vol▲ 0pts4d

Polymarket

Open

South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner

Darline Graham Nordone73¢

50 outcomes

$424K Vol▲ 0pts15d

Manifold· Play

Open

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner?

Despite Governor Whitmer's late endorsement of moderate Haley Stevens (July 25), progressive Abdul El-Sayed maintains a commanding 69% lead, indicating the endorsement has not significantly reshaped primary dynamics and that El-Sayed's base remains firmly behind him.

Abdul El-Sayed69¢

3 outcomes

Ɱ57.8K Vol▲ 0pts8d

Futuur

Open

Next Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina

The field is a tight two-way duel between incumbent Denis Bećirović (47%) and former member Bakir Izetbegović (43%), with Semir Efendić (9%) as a distant spoiler; the biggest recent shift is the narrowing gap after Izetbegović's February meeting with Erdogan (Türkiye Today, Feb 15) countered Bećirović's March diplomatic boost (Anadolu Ajansı, Mar 28).

Bakir Izetbegović48¢

3 outcomes

$248 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Kalshi

Open

FL-06 Republican nominee?

Randy Fine96¢

6 outcomes

$336K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Smarkets

Open

Governor Elections — California Governor Election Winner

The field is effectively a one-candidate race after the primary, with Xavier Becerra at 100% and Steve Hilton at 9%, but the sum over 100% reflects market inefficiency or liquidity issues rather than genuine competition. The single biggest recent shift is Becerra's consolidation to near-certainty following the July 3 primary results, which confirmed his advance as the Democratic nominee (The New York Times, Jul 3).

Xavier Becerra93¢

2 outcomes

£2.6K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a Democrat win the 2028 Presidential Election?

Yes57¢

No43¢

Yes ≈ 57% chance

Ɱ52.5K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Futuur

Open

Elected Senators for São Paulo in 2026

The field is concentrated among three frontrunners but remains unusually open for a Senate race, as the Bolsonaro family rift is fragmenting the right-wing vote and leaving room for a second-tier candidate like Márcio França to consolidate the left behind Lula's narrow alliance.

Guilherme Derrite64¢

6 outcomes

$238 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Kalshi

Open

MI-13 Democratic nominee?

Donavan McKinney87¢

5 outcomes

$182K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Smarkets

Open

Next General Election - Snap 2026 Election

Despite calls from figures like Nigel Farage and conditional plans from Andy Burnham, the market heavily discounts a snap UK election in 2026 because the next scheduled election is 2029 and no credible parliamentary mechanism to force an early vote has emerged.

Yes11¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

£2.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Clacton by-election: 2nd place

Count Binface82¢

53 outcomes

$273K Vol▲ 1pts11mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?

The field remains unusually fragmented with 'Other' leading at 29%, reflecting deep uncertainty about both party nominations; the biggest recent shift is the Democratic National Committee's decision to keep South Carolina as the first primary state (The Guardian, Jul 24), which could reshape the Democratic field's dynamics.

Other29¢

21 outcomes

Ɱ555K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

California Governor winner?

Xavier Becerra95¢

2 outcomes

$1.2M Vol▲ 0pts1y

Futuur

Open

Elected Senators for Minas Gerais in 2026

The field is moderately concentrated with three front-runners (Campos, Viana, Sávio) collectively polling near the three-seat threshold, but the biggest recent shift is Marília Campos consolidating support after the PT's initial scramble for a candidate (Valor International, Jun 15), turning a chaotic primary into a clear lead.

Marília Campos70¢

6 outcomes

$229 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Smarkets

Open

Next General Election - Snap 2027 Election

Despite Nigel Farage's vocal demand for a snap election, the odds remain low because the ruling Conservatives have no incentive to call one early and the scheduled election is not until 2029.

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

£1.3K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket⚡ Moving fast

Open

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Abdul El-Sayed66¢

20 outcomes

$1.3M Vol▼ 3pts8d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?

Yes37¢

No63¢

Yes ≈ 37% chance

Ɱ31.6K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

Oklahoma Republican Governor nominee?

Mike Mazzei80¢

2 outcomes

$626K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Futuur

Open

Michigan Governor election winner

The field is heavily concentrated on the Democratic side at 74%, but the Republican side remains fragmented with only 14%, and the recent 'total endorsement' of John James by Trump (Bridge Michigan, Jun 23) has not yet consolidated GOP support enough to close the gap, while bipartisan election-law changes (Votebeat, Jun 23) and Whitmer's signed bills (WZZM13, Jun 22) could shift turnout dynamics.

Democratic Party74¢

2 outcomes

$177 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Smarkets

Open

Clacton By-Election - Nigel Farage To Increase Vote Share

Despite near-certain odds that Nigel Farage will increase his vote share in the Clacton by-election, the real story is the crowded field of rivals—including the satirical Count Binface—that could either fragment the opposition or siphon off protest votes, yet the market sees incumbency and name recognition as overwhelming factors.

Yes96¢

No4¢

Yes ≈ 96% chance

£1.2K Vol▲ 0pts18d

Polymarket

Open

Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$48.6K Vol▼ 15pts5mo