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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 76 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 4132 US elections 3027 Foreign politics 525 Political Leader Tenure 383 Future US Presidents 252 US Political Timelines 211 Leader Tenure Predictions 126 US Political Future 116 Presidential Candidacy 80 US Political Milestones ✨ 35 Person of the Year Awards 17 Sports & Political Leadership 9

5,167 markets · page 76 of 216

Manifold· Play

Open

Will (any) Trump run against (any) Obama in the 2028 presidential election?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ6.8K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

‹ Prev1…7475767778…216Next ›

Clémentine Autain

The market is perfectly split because Autain is a prominent left-wing figure whose candidacy depends on a fragmented leftist coalition agreeing on a single nominee, with no recent news to break the deadlock.

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$1 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Polymarket

Open

NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

$159 Vol▼ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Gitmo or Cecot transition from concentration camps to full blown extermination camps by the 2028 US election?

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ344 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Dominique de Villepin

Dominique de Villepin's recent high-profile commentary on Iran and Ukraine (CNN, Jun 12) keeps him in the spotlight, but no formal candidacy announcement or party backing has emerged, leaving his electoral intentions ambiguous at 56%.

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

$167 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Polymarket

Open

Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?

Yes97¢

No3¢

Yes ≈ 97% chance

$16.9K Vol▲ 1pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Montanas Democratic Nominee drop out or suspend campaigning?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ224 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?

Yes97¢

No3¢

Yes ≈ 97% chance

$19.4K Vol3mo

Kalshi

Open

Édouard Philippe

Édouard Philippe has transformed from a technocratic ex-PM into a full-throated campaigner against the far right, and the market sees his path to the ballot as nearly certain despite a lingering embezzlement probe.

Yes87¢

No13¢

Yes ≈ 87% chance

$539 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Elon Musk form his own national-level political party by the 2028 Presidential elections?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ1.5K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

North Carolina

Yes96¢

No4¢

Yes ≈ 96% chance

$11.8K Vol3mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Éric Zemmour appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?

Éric Zemmour's 2027 candidacy is priced at 80% despite unresolved legal risks from a 2021 scandal and past sponsor difficulties, reflecting confidence in his media-driven campaign machine.

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

$14 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If Erica Kirk is in the 2028 Republican Primary debate, will she capture >20% of the vote in the primary?

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Ɱ105 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will Ohio use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?

Yes97¢

No3¢

Yes ≈ 97% chance

$7.3K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

François Asselineau

François Asselineau has failed to qualify for the French presidential ballot in both 2017 and 2022 due to an inability to secure the required 500 endorsements from elected officials, making his 2027 candidacy a long shot despite a loyal base.

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$16 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If Reform wins next election, I have to show ID for Discord & Twitter full access at time of the election after that?

Yes50¢

No50¢

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Ɱ22 Vol▲ 0pts7y

Polymarket

Open

Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?

Yes91¢

No9¢

Yes ≈ 91% chance

$93.4K Vol3mo

Kalshi

Open

François Hollande

Despite a 55% probability, Hollande's name has not been linked to the 2027 race in any recent headline; the odds likely reflect residual party expectation rather than active momentum, and the long gap since his presidency makes a comeback improbable without concrete signs.

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

$23 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will David Lammy lose his seat at the next general election?

Yes48¢

No52¢

Yes ≈ 48% chance

Ɱ5 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Will Florida use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?

Yes98¢

No2¢

Yes ≈ 98% chance

$7K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

Fabien Roussel

The market strongly expects Fabien Roussel to run, but the real story is whether the splintered French left can unite behind a single candidate amidst rising far-right nationalism and internal party dynamics.

Yes79¢

No21¢

Yes ≈ 79% chance

$382 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Manifold· Play

Open

US court case where Ableman v. Booth is material on the Supremacy Clause before midterm elections?

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Ɱ70 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Louisiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?

Yes93¢

No7¢

Yes ≈ 93% chance

$16K Vol3mo

Kalshi

Open

François Ruffin

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

$25 Vol▲ 0pts11mo