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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 8 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3881 US elections 2765 Foreign politics 427 Political Leader Tenure 354 Future US Presidents 225 US Political Timelines 203 Leader Tenure Predictions 117 US Political Future 107 Presidential Candidacy 75 Person of the Year Awards 13 Sports & Political Leadership 10

1,059 markets · page 8 of 45

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Donald Trump annex Greenland into the US before 2027?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ2.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

‹ Prev1…678910…45Next ›

Will Letitia James be arrested before 2027?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

$2K Vol▼ 1pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will Jack Smith be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

$52.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? [Polymarket]

Despite Milei's dire 6% odds, the market is pricing a collapse that has not yet formally occurred—the resignation of his top aide over corruption is the most concrete threat, but Milei himself remains in power and is publicly projecting economic confidence.

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ689 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$143K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Kanye West / Ye visit Israel before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$57.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

At any point before February 1, 2045, will there be a major third party in US politics? [read desc]

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ69 Vol▲ 0pts18y

Polymarket

Open

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?

Yes17¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$57.8K Vol▼ 2pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Vladimir Putin

Putin's 88% No odds reflect a stable autocracy with no visible succession mechanism, but the Kazakh president's unprecedented call for a Ukraine war freeze signals growing external pressure that could theoretically trigger a leadership change, though no concrete exit path exists.

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$657K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Donald Trump serve time under House Arrest before 2027?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Ɱ8.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? — December 31

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$1.3M Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce the formal abolition of the hukou household registration system nationwide before Jan 1, 2030? — Before 2030

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

$888 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the DOJ open an 'election integrity' investigation for a midterm election before 2027?

Yes87¢

No13¢

Yes ≈ 87% chance

Ɱ120 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Stephen A. Smith

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$16.1K Vol▼ 2pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Benjamin Netanyahu

The race is nearly a toss-up because Netanyahu's international support from Trump and right-wing allies offsets the growing pressure from arrest calls and domestic media reform backlash, making his departure before 2027 highly uncertain.

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

$426K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be a rationalist group house in Prague before 2027?

Yes39¢

No61¢

Yes ≈ 39% chance

Ɱ48 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?

Yes5¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$32.4K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Trump end the Federal Reserve before Jan 20, 2029? — Before Jan 20, 2029

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$126K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Congress regulate tire or brake emissions before 2029?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ149 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?

Yes93¢

No7¢

Yes ≈ 93% chance

$567K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will permanent daylight savings become law before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

$67K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Austria recognize Palestine before 2027?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$173K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Trump balance the budget before 2027?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Ɱ18.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes before 2027?

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$99.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo