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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 103 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2467 Tech Company Valuations 920 Big tech & chips 630 Space 486 Science 289 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,698 markets · page 103 of 113

Manifold· Play

Open

Will non-profit funding for AI safety reach 100 billion US dollars in a year before 2030?

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Ɱ562 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Open

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Will OpenAI release a competitor to GitHub in 2026?

Despite confirmed reports of OpenAI developing a GitHub competitor, the market heavily doubts a 2026 release, likely due to the short development timeline and fierce competition from incumbents and startups like Cursor.

Yes17¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ663 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ18.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ2.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will any BigLaw firm be "completely wrecked" by AI in the next year?

The market is skeptical that AI will completely wreck any BigLaw firm within a year, but the real story is that the debate hinges on whether AI will cause catastrophic failure or just gradual disruption, with the odds reflecting a belief that BigLaw's structural resilience will prevent total collapse in the short term.

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ785 Vol▲ 0pts7mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "OpenAI #15: More on OpenAI’s Paranoid Lawfare..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

The market heavily doubts this specific post in a series about OpenAI's legal tactics will crack the top 50 of LessWrong's annual review, likely because such news-focused commentary rarely competes with the technical or philosophical essays that dominate the list.

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ674 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Manifold· Play

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In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie from a script?

Yes45¢

No55¢

Yes ≈ 45% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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In 2028, will at least 3.5m Americans be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

The market is skeptical that AI romantic companions will reach 3.5 million weekly users by 2028, but the 22% odds may be too low given the rapid pace of AI adoption and the loneliness epidemic.

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ3.3K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model?

Yes61¢

No39¢

Yes ≈ 61% chance

Ɱ192 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will a substantial number of legal arbitrations use an ai arbitration by January 1, 2029?

Expanding mandatory arbitration clauses (Bank of America, May 2026) create a growing pool of disputes, but the adoption of AI as the decision-maker remains stymied by due process, enforceability, and ethical concerns, keeping the odds slightly below even.

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

Ɱ660 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will OpenAI exist in Jan 2027?

Yes96¢

No4¢

Yes ≈ 96% chance

Ɱ15.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will an AI system legally act as a healthcare proxy anywhere in the US by 2032?

The market sees a 60% chance that an AI system will legally act as a healthcare proxy in the US by 2032, but with no recent headlines, the odds reflect a speculative bet on gradual regulatory acceptance rather than a specific legislative push.

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

Ɱ57 Vol▲ 0pts5y

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SOAI#2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ4.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will there be a trend of companies removing "AI-assisted" features from their products before the end of 2026?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ294 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will OpenAI make a profit in 2025?

Despite OpenAI's massive revenue, leaked documents show it is burning billions annually, making a 2025 profit extremely unlikely, and the market heavily discounts even the possibility of a turnaround.

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ643 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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AI Warning Signs: Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

The market's 59% Yes reflects elevated geopolitical tensions from US-Iran threats and concerns about online extremism, but none of the recent headlines explicitly tie aggression to an AI capabilities race, leaving the core condition unaddressed.

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ641 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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AI Companion Gender Gap: Men vs Women Romantic Preference by 2030

Yes46¢

No54¢

Yes ≈ 46% chance

Ɱ133 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Will Anthropic release a system card of a model at a new frontier of intellegence by August 31st?

Yes57¢

No43¢

Yes ≈ 57% chance

Ɱ1.5K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

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Will a GPT-3 quality model be trained for under $10.000 by 2030?

The market is virtually certain that a GPT-3-quality model can be trained for under $10,000 by 2030, reflecting the rapid pace of AI progress and cost reductions that have already made such a feat seem trivial.

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

Ɱ18.9K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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SOAI#6: “AI neutrality” emerges as a foreign policy doctrine as some nations cannot or fail to develop sovereign AI

The market strongly doubts that 'AI neutrality' will materialize as a recognized foreign policy doctrine, reflecting the absence of diplomatic proposals or concrete definitions despite the struggles of non-sovereign AI nations.

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ2.3K Vol▲ 0pts4mo

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Will a major AI lab announce that the weights of one of its models were compromised in a cyberattack before 2027?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ2.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will I believe my prediction about AI enabling more SWEs to solve less lucrative problems by shrinking team sizes to have been fulfilled by EoY 2030

Yes68¢

No32¢

Yes ≈ 68% chance

Ɱ219 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2026?

The market is skeptical that a critically acclaimed game will use AI dialogue in 2026, likely because the industry's focus on remakes and technical demos (like Roblox's hybrid architecture) suggests a cautious approach to narrative AI, while the broader AI hype in chatbots and tools hasn't translated into game narrative breakthroughs.

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ5.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will any of the remaining Clay Millenium problems be solved with substantial help from an AI before 2030?

Yes51¢

No49¢

Yes ≈ 51% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts3y