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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2384 Tech Company Valuations 890 Big tech & chips 607 Space 457 Science 269 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

14 markets

Manifold· Play

Open

Software Intelligence Explosion by 2040?

Yes70¢

No30¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Ɱ223 Vol▲ 0pts13y

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Open

Will the median reported total compensation for L3 software engineers at Google exceed $300,000 before 2028?

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ77 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

JAX backend is implemented for statistical software Stan (before 2027)

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ33 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Gmail be the most popular email software 10 years from now?

Yes81¢

No19¢

Yes ≈ 81% chance

Ɱ961 Vol▲ 0pts7y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Mathematica and Maple (software) be interoperable with each other by EOY 2028?

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Ɱ50 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be more software engineers (the kind that write code, e.g. Python or C or JavaScript code) in 5 years?

Yes71¢

No29¢

Yes ≈ 71% chance

Ɱ225 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Open

Gowers releases point-and-click structured motivated proof software in one year?

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

Ɱ55 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the median reported total compensation for L3 software engineers at Google exceed $300,000 before 2030?

Yes63¢

No37¢

Yes ≈ 63% chance

Ɱ42 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the median reported total compensation for L3 software engineers at Google exceed $300,000 before 2033?

Yes72¢

No28¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

Ɱ66 Vol▲ 0pts6y

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Open

Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ10K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the median reported total compensation for L3 software engineers at Google exceed $300,000 before 2036?

Yes73¢

No27¢

Yes ≈ 73% chance

Ɱ66 Vol▲ 0pts9y

Manifold· Play

Open

In 2028, Will it be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ12.6K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

TN-1 Status for Canadian Software Engineers

Yes69¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 69% chance

Ɱ705 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be more software engineers in five years than there are today?

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

Ɱ53K Vol▲ 0pts2y