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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2384 Tech Company Valuations 890 Big tech & chips 607 Space 457 Science 269 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

40 markets · page 1 of 2

Manifold· Play

Open

Battle of the version numbers: OpenAI still leads Anthropic (5.2>4.5), through til mid 2027?

Yes83¢

No17¢

Yes ≈ 83% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Manifold· Play

Open

will people still mostly use AI through a textbox on a website/app in August 2027?

Yes70¢

No30¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Ɱ6.1K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will space exploration and commercialization be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

Yes72¢

No28¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

Ɱ74 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will openAI retain >50% chatbot market share through 2030?

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Ɱ907 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Manifold· Play

Open

GSD at work LLC receives $500+ in total payments through OpenAI marketplace/routing system by end-2027?

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

Ɱ133 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Murder in space any time through 2030

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ267 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Manifold· Play

Open

Kidnapping in space any time through 2030

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Manifold· Play

Open

Returned space traveler arrested upon landing in the US any time through 2031

Despite the recent high-profile return of the Artemis II crew without incident, the market assigns only a 10% chance that any space traveler will be arrested upon landing in the US by 2031, reflecting the complete absence of any such event in history and the lack of any credible threat in the headlines.

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ292 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Open

Will there be a cat on Mars any time through 2036?

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts10y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Apple+'s Foundation series follow through to the end of Asimov's novel series?

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

Ɱ382 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Apple Vision Pro breaks 50% annual VR/AR device market share through 2026

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts10mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?

Yes81¢

No19¢

Yes ≈ 81% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Chelsea Voss still be at OpenAI through EOY 2026?

Yes69¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 69% chance

Ɱ61 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

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Will there be a dog on Mars any time through 2036?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ231 Vol▲ 0pts10y

Manifold· Play

Open

Musk, Zuck, or Bezos physically fight someone in space anytime through 2031

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ2.1K Vol▲ 0pts5y

Manifold· Play

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Police force in space any time through 2033

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ346 Vol▲ 0pts7y

Manifold· Play

Open

Apple's Advanced Data Protection feature remains available in the United States through December 31, 2028

Yes64¢

No36¢

Yes ≈ 64% chance

Ɱ325 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Open

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Ɱ5.9K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Physical fight in space through 2031

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ70 Vol▲ 0pts5y

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Anthropic to release model not available through API in 2026

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Ɱ197 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Funeral in space with body committed to space through 2034

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ305 Vol▲ 0pts8y

Manifold· Play

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In 2030, will most human-computer interactions happen through a LLM-interface?

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Extropic AI ever have more than 100m revenue in a year through mid 2029?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ3K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

MMA fight in space anytime through 2027

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ768 Vol▲ 0pts1y