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All AI 2384 Tech Company Valuations 890 Big tech & chips 607 Space 457 Science 269 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

9 markets

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be a Space National Guard established in the USA by the start of 2028?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ60 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be space wars by 2050

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ298 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be more than 1GW of in-space solar power generation by 2030?

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

Ɱ359 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be 30 people in space at any moment before 2030?

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ351 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be 100 people in space at the same time before 2030?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ9.1K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be zero people in space for any period of time before 2040?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ1.5K Vol▲ 0pts13y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be an orgy in space by the end of 2030?

Despite the playful premise, the 10% odds reflect a near-total absence of any credible pathway to an orbital or deep-space orgy by 2030, with recent headlines focused entirely on terrestrial sex festivals and a destroyed Burning Man dome rather than any space-related development.

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ778 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be 25 or more people in space orbiting earth at the end of 2026?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ630 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be 50 people in space at any moment before 2030?

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts3y