AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
2,634 markets · page 105 of 110
Yes ≈ 56% chance
Yes ≈ 15% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Yes ≈ 44% chance
Yes ≈ 44% chance
Yes ≈ 85% chance
Yes ≈ 77% chance
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Yes ≈ 52% chance
Yes ≈ 33% chance
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Yes ≈ 28% chance
Yes ≈ 37% chance
Yes ≈ 21% chance
The market sees a 39% chance that OpenAI or Google will relax nudity filters on image generation by end of 2027, but the real story is that both companies are under competing pressures: Google is doubling down on AI spending and leadership (Time Magazine, Apr 30; 조선일보, Jul 23), while OpenAI is focused on provenance and safety tools (TechCrunch, May 19), making a policy reversal on nudity unlikely without a major cultural or competitive shift.
Yes ≈ 39% chance
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Despite Anthropic's high-profile call for a global pause in June 2026, the market heavily discounts a binding halt before AGI, likely because past voluntary moratoria have been short-lived and enforcement remains unenforceable.
Yes ≈ 30% chance
Yes ≈ 76% chance