Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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Do OpenAI leadership actually believe they could develop AGI?

Despite legal distractions and safety debates, the market strongly believes OpenAI leadership genuinely pursues AGI, reflecting their public advocacy and product roadmaps rather than any explicit internal confession.

Yes82¢

No18¢

Yes ≈ 82% chance

Ɱ390 Vol 0pts3y

Tech prediction markets

Do OpenAI leadership actually believe they could develop AGI?

AI market summary causes controversial resolution of M$10,000 or more before 2027?

Will humanity wipe out AI before the year 2030?

Will "Model Organisms for Emergent Misalignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will the "AI Longbets Turing Test by 2029" market go above 80% by EOY 2026?

Will my standard of living 3 years from now be meaningfully affected by AI?

Will an AI be convicted of a crime in a US court by 2050?

Slopotopia: Have we reached peak AI slop in 2025?

Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months?

Will Jeff Maurer think AI is a huge deal by 2046?

Anthropic reaches $1T+ valuation before OpenAI?

Before 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers?

Will an AI datacenter be hit with an EMP before 2031?

Will an AI be granted legal personhood in any country by end of 2030?

Will Sam Altman leverage OpenAI's success to substantial personal gain?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2075?

Will a company lose ownership of an AI due to credible claims of the AI's possible sentience by the end of 2034?

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?

AI: Self-Driving Majority of Miles by 2040

Will AI-assisted coding replace manual coding as the default teaching approach in programming schools by 2036?

Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?

Will OpenAI change its name to ClosedAi?

Will I get punished for blindly running AI-generated code in 2026?

Will LLM training costs fall 300x by 2028?