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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 11 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2354 Tech Company Valuations 875 Big tech & chips 602 Space 445 Science 264 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

1,309 markets · page 11 of 55

Kalshi

Open

Will Bad Bunny be in the Top 5 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People?

Yes72¢

No28¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

$7.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

‹ Prev1…910111213…55Next ›

Open

Will the first self-sustaining base on Mars begin being established within 20 years as Elon Musk says?

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Ɱ547 Vol▲ 0pts18y

Polymarket

Open

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$17.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? — Above 150

Yes77¢

No23¢

Yes ≈ 77% chance

$5.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

By EOY 2026, will Yann LeCun do a 180 on his view of x-risk from AI?

Yes6¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ2.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31?

Despite Peter Thiel's relocation to Argentina and a proposed 'golden passport' program, the market heavily doubts a formal citizenship grant by year-end because the program remains unenacted and Thiel's moves are temporary, not a concrete application.

Yes37¢

No63¢

Yes ≈ 37% chance

$985 Vol▲ 27pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026? — Above 12

Yes96¢

No4¢

Yes ≈ 96% chance

$83 Vol▲ 0pts12d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Neal Stephenson publish a novel in which AI is a crucial plot element by the end of 2026?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ941 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? — 50%+

Yes67¢

No34¢

Yes ≈ 67% chance

$3.3K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes54¢

No46¢

Yes ≈ 54% chance

$22.4K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will adept.ai auto-ask questions to manifold from a list of questions (.txt) by 2026?

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ10 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

$4.2K Vol▼ 9pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? — Before Nov 1, 2026

Yes55¢

No45¢

Yes ≈ 55% chance

$32.9K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the top player in AoE2 lose against an AOE2 AI by EOY 2026? (must be at least 3 games)

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Ɱ73 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?

Yes21¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

$23.1K Vol25d

Kalshi

Open

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda be reported before Oct 1, 2026?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$204 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Israel have a government backed AI organization or project named GOLEM by the end of 2026?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ412 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?

Yes81¢

No19¢

Yes ≈ 81% chance

$21.9K Vol2mo

Kalshi

Open

Above 16000 Cyclosporiasis cases in the United States during 2026 — Above 16k

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

$1.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Crypton Future Media announce a singing synth voicebank for software made by another company by the end of 2026?

Yes76¢

No24¢

Yes ≈ 76% chance

Ɱ88 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026?

Yes82¢

No18¢

Yes ≈ 82% chance

$542 Vol▲ 10pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the United States have at least 4,900 data centers listed in 2026? — At least 4,900

Despite growing backlash and moratoriums in key states, the market is confident the US will hit 4,900 data centers in 2026, betting that the AI-driven buildout in other regions will easily offset local restrictions.

Yes79¢

No21¢

Yes ≈ 79% chance

$2.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "Learnings from starting an AI safety research..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ10 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will Elon post "Tesla" on X this week?

Yes65¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 65% chance

$147 Vol▲ 21pts7d