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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 118 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2685 Tech Company Valuations 1009 Big tech & chips 682 Space 564 Science 361 Through 40 Software Engineering Trends 16 Elevator 16 Space Development 10 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,926 markets · page 118 of 122

Manifold· Play

Open

Will my standard of living 3 years from now be meaningfully affected by AI?

Yes72¢

No28¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

Ɱ877 Vol▲ 0pts7mo

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‹ Prev1…116117118119120…122Next ›

Open

Will an AI be convicted of a crime in a US court by 2050?

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Ɱ435 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

Slopotopia: Have we reached peak AI slop in 2025?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ397 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ753 Vol▲ 0pts5d

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Open

Will Jeff Maurer think AI is a huge deal by 2046?

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

Ɱ125 Vol▲ 0pts19y

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Open

Anthropic reaches $1T+ valuation before OpenAI?

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Before 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers?

Yes83¢

No17¢

Yes ≈ 83% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will an AI datacenter be hit with an EMP before 2031?

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ267 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Open

GPT 5.5 METR 50% time horizon

10h - 12h29¢

10 outcomes

Ɱ2.8K Vol▲ 0pts5d

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Open

Will an AI be granted legal personhood in any country by end of 2030?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ38.5K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Open

Will Sam Altman leverage OpenAI's success to substantial personal gain?

Yes85¢

No16¢

Yes ≈ 85% chance

Ɱ2.4K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

SpaceX highest valuation by end of September 2026

≥$1T100¢

9 outcomes

Ɱ9.9K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

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Open

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2075?

Yes13¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ18.1K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

Will a company lose ownership of an AI due to credible claims of the AI's possible sentience by the end of 2034?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ221 Vol▲ 0pts8y

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Open

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

Ɱ967 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

AI: Self-Driving Majority of Miles by 2040

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

Ɱ134 Vol▲ 0pts13y

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Open

Will AI-assisted coding replace manual coding as the default teaching approach in programming schools by 2036?

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

Ɱ118 Vol▲ 0pts9y

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Open

Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?

Yes4¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ2.3K Vol▲ 0pts22d

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Will OpenAI change its name to ClosedAi?

Yes3¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ3.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will I get punished for blindly running AI-generated code in 2026?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will LLM training costs fall 300x by 2028?

Yes87¢

No13¢

Yes ≈ 87% chance

Ɱ249 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

AI will not cause any catastrophes in 2026

Yes91¢

No9¢

Yes ≈ 91% chance

Ɱ2.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will the next Expert Survey on Progress in AI estimate 50% chance Full Automation of Labor after 2080?

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ71 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will AI companies be crucially important to American Progress in the next 2 decades?

Yes90¢

No10¢

Yes ≈ 90% chance

Ɱ192 Vol▲ 0pts16y