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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 15 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2467 Tech Company Valuations 920 Big tech & chips 630 Space 486 Science 289 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,698 markets · page 15 of 113

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Gary Marcus be accurate on at least 50% of his predictions on AI in 2029?

Yes57¢

No43¢

Yes ≈ 57% chance

Ɱ148 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

‹ Prev1…1314151617…113Next ›

Will any LLM score at least 85% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? — At least 85%

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$620 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? — ↑ 1600

Yes11¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$21.7K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI beat top human players at Civ6 (without cheating) by EOY 2026?

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ580 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will any LLM score at least 90% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? — At least 90%

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$763 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas, NV by December 31 2026?

Yes79¢

No21¢

Yes ≈ 79% chance

$1.2K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a song produced using Grimes' AI vocal resource pass $10K in revenue?

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

Ɱ354 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Will any LLM score at least 65% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027? — At least 65%

Yes79¢

No21¢

Yes ≈ 79% chance

$371 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

Other50¢

25 outcomes

$55 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will any country recognize AI or robots as non human persons with legal rights before the end of 2055?

Yes58¢

No42¢

Yes ≈ 58% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will any LLM score at least 70% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027? — At least 70%

Yes96¢

No4¢

Yes ≈ 96% chance

$5.7K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of August?

Other50¢

30 outcomes

$1.6K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Can an LLM be funny in 2026?

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

Ɱ610 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will any LLM score at least 75% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027? — At least 75%

Yes50¢

No50¢

Yes ≈ 50% chance

$1.5K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?

Yes3¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$62.7K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes before 2029?

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

Ɱ10.3K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will any LLM score at least 80% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027? — At least 80%

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

$1.6K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31? — #5

Chinese AI labs have rapidly closed the gap with U.S. leaders, and the recent surge in odds reflects a growing belief that cost advantages will push at least one Chinese model into the top 5 by year-end, despite the leaderboard still being dominated by American firms.

Yes43¢

No57¢

Yes ≈ 43% chance

$17.7K Vol▼ 2pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a model of chatGPT state lab-leak theory is the origin of covid 19 before 2030?

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

Ɱ421 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Kalshi

Open

Will any LLM score at least 85% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027? — At least 85%

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

$701 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? — 60%+

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$236 Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

AI honesty #1: by 2027 will we have AI that doesn't hallucinate random nonsense?

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

Ɱ8.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will any LLM score at least 90% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027? — At least 90%

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$701 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026? — Ring

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$11.5K Vol5mo