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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 15 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

🔭 Compare tech odds across venues →

All AI 2387 Tech Company Valuations 892 Big tech & chips 608 Space 459 Science 269 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

1,320 markets · page 15 of 55

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Apple announce something stupid in 2026?

Yes78¢

No22¢

Yes ≈ 78% chance

Ɱ357 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

‹ Prev1…1314151617…55Next ›

Will Bruno Mars have 14500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? — Above 14.5B

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

$92 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Small Exchange

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$3.1K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will human civilization send a space probe to the Alpha Centauri system before 2075?

Yes43¢

No57¢

Yes ≈ 43% chance

Ɱ81 Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will Bruno Mars have 15000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? — Above 15B

Yes98¢

No2¢

Yes ≈ 98% chance

$158 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$62.7K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2026?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ200 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Bruno Mars have 15500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? — Above 15.5B

Yes98¢

No2¢

Yes ≈ 98% chance

$245 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? — 70%+

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$411 Vol▼ 2pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Tesla will begin offering a truly driverless taxi service to the general public in at least one city in 2026

Yes86¢

No15¢

Yes ≈ 86% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Bruno Mars have 16000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? — Above 16B

Yes98¢

No2¢

Yes ≈ 98% chance

$93 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? — 60%+

Yes11¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$236 Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026?

<10%71¢

10 outcomes

Ɱ28.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Bruno Mars have 16500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? — Above 16.5B

Yes98¢

No2¢

Yes ≈ 98% chance

$113 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026? — Ring

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$11.5K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Bruno Mars have 17000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? — Above 17B

Yes93¢

No7¢

Yes ≈ 93% chance

$33 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "How does such unprofessional AI get the job?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ154 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

Yes61¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 61% chance

$119K Vol▲ 2pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Bruno Mars have 17500000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? — Above 17.5B

Yes94¢

No6¢

Yes ≈ 94% chance

$24 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Tesla's market cap be over 5 trillion dollars before 2030?

Yes18¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ1K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes30¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

$18K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Bruno Mars have 18000000000 Streams on Luminate during January 01 - December 31, 2026? — Above 18B

Yes89¢

No11¢

Yes ≈ 89% chance

$844 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Tesla have a operational Robotaxi that they are announcing on 8/8 operation in the US, by the end of 2026?

Yes90¢

No10¢

Yes ≈ 90% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? — 65%+

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

$1.4K Vol▼ 1pts5mo