AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
3,310 markets · page 19 of 138
Yes ≈ 30% chance
DeepSeek's rapid adoption and cost advantages have made it a major player, but the market heavily doubts it will achieve a #1 AI model ranking before 2027 because incumbents like OpenAI and Google continue to release top-tier models and DeepSeek has never topped a major leaderboard.
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Yes ≈ 57% chance
32 outcomes
Meta's AI models are not currently top-ranked, and recent headlines highlight reputational and governance issues that could hinder their competitive standing, making a #1 ranking by 2027 unlikely.
Yes ≈ 14% chance
The market heavily doubts AI can conquer Civilization VI's strategic depth within six months, despite past victories in other games, because Civ6 demands long-horizon planning, diplomacy, and adaptability that current AI systems lack.
Yes ≈ 18% chance
Google has released new Gemini models, but all are lightweight Flash variants (not Pro) and the flagship Pro is explicitly delayed, making a release by July 29 extremely unlikely despite the 36Kr report of Gemini 4 training launch.
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 3% chance
5 outcomes
The market overwhelmingly expects GPT-6 in 2026, but recent GPT-5.6 releases and scattered product launches suggest OpenAI is iterating incrementally rather than rushing a flagship, casting doubt on a definitive GPT-6 launch this year.
Yes ≈ 89% chance
Yes ≈ 21% chance
4 outcomes
27 outcomes
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Yes ≈ 80% chance
OpenAI's recent flurry of announcements—enterprise voice platforms, a super app, and an inference chip—all reinforce a software-first strategy, making a surprise tablet launch by year-end highly unlikely despite a slight uptick in odds over the past week.
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Yes ≈ 21% chance
Yes ≈ 58% chance
The market overwhelmingly doubts an AI model will hit a 1530 Arena Score by September, despite China eroding the US lead, because no headline or trend suggests a near-term leap large enough to close a likely wide gap from current top scores.
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Yes ≈ 42% chance
Yes ≈ 42% chance
27 outcomes