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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 22 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2330 Tech Company Valuations 863 Big tech & chips 598 Space 437 Science 259 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,561 markets · page 22 of 107

Polymarket

Open

Will Waymo launch in New York, NY by December 31 2026?

Yes20¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

$239 Vol▼ 28pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

‹ Prev1…2021222324…107Next ›

Will some piece of AI capabilities research done in 2023 or after be net-positive for AI alignment research?

Yes82¢

No19¢

Yes ≈ 82% chance

Ɱ404 Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Philadelphia, PA

Yes48¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 48% chance

▲ 4pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will I be able to use an LLM to brush my teeth before 2027?

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

Ɱ874 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Pittsburgh, PA

Yes41¢

No60¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

$88 Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If LMs store info as features in superposition, are there >300K features in GPT-2 small L7? (see desc)

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ286 Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Sacramento, CA

Yes32¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

$207 Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI displace social drinking within 5 years?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ18.9K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Will Waymo launch in San Diego, CA by December 31 2026?

Yes86¢

No14¢

Yes ≈ 86% chance

$353 Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

AI: Will any model exceed World Cup peak interest? (by 2030)

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ155 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Will Waymo launch in Seattle, WA by December 31 2026?

Yes20¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

$20 Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

Yes39¢

No61¢

Yes ≈ 39% chance

Ɱ460 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Waymo launch in St. Louis, MO by December 31 2026?

Yes48¢

No52¢

Yes ≈ 48% chance

5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same day?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ451 Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Will Waymo launch in Tokyo, Japan by December 31 2026?

Yes46¢

No54¢

Yes ≈ 46% chance

$20 Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Washington, DC

Yes19¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

$949 Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

will an ai write knuth's next book before he does?

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ92 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ?

Yes66¢

No34¢

Yes ≈ 66% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts5y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "Leaving Open Philanthropy, going to Anthropic" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ250 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Manifold· Play

Open

[Metaculus] Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ328 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Will a new Gemini flagship be released by July 31, 2026?

Yes39¢

No61¢

Yes ≈ 39% chance

$253 Vol▼ 0pts4d

Manifold· Play

Open

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Yes54¢

No46¢

Yes ≈ 54% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$4.6K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will advanced AI systems be found to have made money illegally via finding security exploits and/or getting unauthorized access to others' bank accounts by end of 2035?

Yes78¢

No22¢

Yes ≈ 78% chance

Ɱ188 Vol▲ 0pts9y