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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 23 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2370 Tech Company Valuations 884 Big tech & chips 602 Space 451 Science 266 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,600 markets · page 23 of 109

Polymarket

Open

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$4.6K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

‹ Prev1…2122232425…109Next ›

If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ?

Yes66¢

No34¢

Yes ≈ 66% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts5y

Polymarket

Open

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by August 31, 2026?

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

$216 Vol1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "Leaving Open Philanthropy, going to Anthropic" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ250 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by October 31, 2026?

Yes75¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 75% chance

$96 Vol▲ 3pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

[Metaculus] Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ328 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by December 31, 2026?

Yes95¢

No5¢

Yes ≈ 95% chance

$2.5K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Yes54¢

No46¢

Yes ≈ 54% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by October 31, 2026?

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

$534 Vol▼ 2pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will advanced AI systems be found to have made money illegally via finding security exploits and/or getting unauthorized access to others' bank accounts by end of 2035?

Yes78¢

No22¢

Yes ≈ 78% chance

Ɱ188 Vol▲ 0pts9y

Polymarket

Open

Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? — #3

Yes21¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

$10.9K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will GPT-X have Geiger mode?

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ70 Vol▲ 0pts8y

Polymarket

Open

Will Grok 5 be released by August 15, 2026?

Yes2¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$1K Vol20d

Manifold· Play

Open

AI: Will someone train a $10T model by 2100?

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ281 Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Will Grok 5 be released by August 31, 2026?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$1.2K Vol1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

By EOY 2026, will Yann LeCun do a 180 on his view of x-risk from AI?

Yes6¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ2.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026?

Yes82¢

No19¢

Yes ≈ 82% chance

$542 Vol▲ 6pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Neal Stephenson publish a novel in which AI is a crucial plot element by the end of 2026?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ941 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026?

Yes6¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$433 Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Yes78¢

No22¢

Yes ≈ 78% chance

Ɱ943 Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Will Microsoft release a new MAI thinking model by September 30, 2026?

Yes26¢

No74¢

Yes ≈ 26% chance

$131 Vol2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI release a high-quality AI generated movie by the end of 2028?

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ487 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Will Microsoft release a new MAI thinking model by December 31, 2026?

Yes48¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 48% chance

$301 Vol▲ 3pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Emmanuel Macron publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ930 Vol▲ 0pts1y