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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 23 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

🔭 Compare tech odds across venues →

All AI 2505 Tech Company Valuations 938 Big tech & chips 638 Space 497 Science 296 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

1,366 markets · page 23 of 57

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a Korean win a Nobel Prize in one of the science categories in 2025 or 2026?

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Ɱ75 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

‹ Prev1…2122232425…57Next ›

Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes7¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$1.9K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Above 15 human H5N1 cases in the United States during 2026

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$25 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Apple Vision Pro breaks 50% annual VR/AR device market share through 2026

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts10mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$3.8K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Above 2 human H5N1 cases in the United States during 2026

Yes37¢

No63¢

Yes ≈ 37% chance

$478 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a human walk on Mars before 2044?

Yes52¢

No48¢

Yes ≈ 52% chance

Ɱ4.2K Vol▲ 0pts17y

Polymarket

Open

Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes8¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$2.7K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Above 3 human H5N1 cases in the United States during 2026

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

$45 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "The current SOTA model was released without s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ30 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$2.5K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Above 5 human H5N1 cases in the United States during 2026

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

$12 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Apple announce an iPhone Air 2 in 2026 event?

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$6.4K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Above 7 human H5N1 cases in the United States during 2026

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

$15 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

There will be an anti-AI super PAC that raises at least $20 million in 2026

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$2.9K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will SpaceX test launch its Human Launch System before 2027? — Before 2027

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$17K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Elon Musk spend any time on Mars before he dies?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ20.9K Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes7¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$2K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will any LLM score at least 50% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? — At least 50%

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

$3.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be an xkcd about AI in 2026?

Yes72¢

No28¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$12K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will any LLM score at least 65% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? — At least 65%

Yes33¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

$1.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo