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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 26 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2643 Tech Company Valuations 990 Big tech & chips 666 Space 552 Science 344 Through 40 Elevator 16 Software Engineering Trends 15 Space Development 10 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,873 markets · page 26 of 120

Polymarket

Open

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

Yes69¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 69% chance

$8.1K Vol▼ 7pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

‹ Prev1…2425262728…120Next ›

Will any other large AI organization have a big public leadership conflict before 2028?

Yes68¢

No32¢

Yes ≈ 68% chance

Ɱ68 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

Yes5¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$2.8K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?

The market assigns a negligible 3% chance to AI causing over 20% human mortality by 2030, reflecting a lack of any credible pathway or recent evidence; the headlines about Ebola, heatwaves, and civil conflicts are unrelated to AI risk and do not move the odds.

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ104K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?

Yes6¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$40K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will some piece of AI capabilities research done in 2023 or after be net-positive for AI alignment research?

Yes82¢

No19¢

Yes ≈ 82% chance

Ɱ404 Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Perplexity IPO Closing Market Cap

No IPO before 202856¢

8 outcomes

$145K Vol▼ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will I be able to use an LLM to brush my teeth before 2027?

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

Ɱ874 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?

Goldman Sachs55¢

19 outcomes

$35.9K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

What are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?

A. Death by paperclips, eternal torment of all humans by AI, or similar unalignment catastrophe.39¢

9 outcomes

Ɱ2.9K Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in July 2026?

5+59¢

4 outcomes

$29.1K Vol▼ 1pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

If LMs store info as features in superposition, are there >300K features in GPT-2 small L7? (see desc)

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ286 Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of August?

OpenAI78¢

27 outcomes

$6.4K Vol▲ 1pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI displace social drinking within 5 years?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ18.9K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)

Anthropic77¢

32 outcomes

$1K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

AI: Will any model exceed World Cup peak interest? (by 2030)

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ155 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of August?

Other50¢

34 outcomes

$1.3K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027

Yes39¢

No61¢

Yes ≈ 39% chance

Ɱ460 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Polymarket

Open

#3 AI Lab end of August? (Style Control On)

Company A50¢

32 outcomes

$2K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same day?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ451 Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?

Other50¢

30 outcomes

▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

will an ai write knuth's next book before he does?

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ92 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?

Other50¢

30 outcomes

▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ?

Yes66¢

No34¢

Yes ≈ 66% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts5y