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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 27 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2674 Tech Company Valuations 1002 Big tech & chips 677 Space 558 Science 357 Through 40 Software Engineering Trends 16 Elevator 16 Space Development 10 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,904 markets · page 27 of 121

Polymarket

Open

Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?

Other50¢

30 outcomes

▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same day?

‹ Prev1…2526272829…121Next ›

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ451 Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?

Other50¢

30 outcomes

▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

will an ai write knuth's next book before he does?

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ92 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

Other50¢

25 outcomes

▲ 0pts2mo

Polymarket

Open

Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of September?

Other50¢

34 outcomes

▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ?

Yes66¢

No34¢

Yes ≈ 66% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts5y

Polymarket

Open

Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of September?

Other50¢

34 outcomes

$39 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "Leaving Open Philanthropy, going to Anthropic" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ250 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Manifold· Play

Open

[Metaculus] Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ328 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Yes54¢

No46¢

Yes ≈ 54% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will advanced AI systems be found to have made money illegally via finding security exploits and/or getting unauthorized access to others' bank accounts by end of 2035?

Yes78¢

No22¢

Yes ≈ 78% chance

Ɱ188 Vol▲ 0pts9y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will GPT-X have Geiger mode?

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ70 Vol▲ 0pts8y

Manifold· Play

Open

AI: Will someone train a $10T model by 2100?

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ281 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

By EOY 2026, will Yann LeCun do a 180 on his view of x-risk from AI?

Yes6¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ2.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Neal Stephenson publish a novel in which AI is a crucial plot element by the end of 2026?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ941 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Yes78¢

No22¢

Yes ≈ 78% chance

Ɱ943 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI release a high-quality AI generated movie by the end of 2028?

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ487 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Emmanuel Macron publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ930 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of April Fools 2027?

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts8mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI extend English before 2031?

Yes67¢

No33¢

Yes ≈ 67% chance

Ɱ4.4K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a model costing >$30M be intentionally trained to be more mechanistically interpretable by end of 2027? (see desc)

Yes61¢

No39¢

Yes ≈ 61% chance

Ɱ3.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI/BCIs/neurotech be sophisticated enough to reverse other people's bad opinions of each other by 2033?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ126 Vol▲ 0pts7y

Manifold· Play

Open

AI to assist in designing "Enlightment guides" by 2100.

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

Ɱ187 Vol▲ 0pts—