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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 28 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2674 Tech Company Valuations 1002 Big tech & chips 677 Space 558 Science 357 Through 40 Software Engineering Trends 16 Elevator 16 Space Development 10 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,904 markets · page 28 of 121

Manifold· Play

Open

Would Anthropic win in Starcraft2 match between the best players of the Anthropic team and those of the OpenAI team?

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Ɱ56 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

‹ Prev1…2627282930…121Next ›

Open

MLB player or team punished for illegal during-game use of AI by mid 2027

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ465 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If I write an encyclopedia of bad AI arguments, will people seem to find it useful?

Yes79¢

No21¢

Yes ≈ 79% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AI achieve a perfect score on the Miklós Schweitzer Competition before 2028?

Yes83¢

No17¢

Yes ≈ 83% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will adept.ai auto-ask questions to manifold from a list of questions (.txt) by 2026?

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ10 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-5 is sentient?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?

Yes92¢

No8¢

Yes ≈ 92% chance

Ɱ555 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Will AI win an episode of wipeout by 2030?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ694 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Open

Will Cameo offer a deepfake/ai generated video product before 2030?

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

Ɱ51 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AI built to solve alignment wipe out humanity by 2100?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ330 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

By 2029, will an AI escape containment?

Yes58¢

No42¢

Yes ≈ 58% chance

Ɱ16.8K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

Yes87¢

No13¢

Yes ≈ 87% chance

Ɱ12.4K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Will AI progress surprise Metaculus?

Yes76¢

No24¢

Yes ≈ 76% chance

Ɱ401 Vol▲ 0pts8y

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Open

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2900?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ169 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

Will the top player in AoE2 lose against an AOE2 AI by EOY 2026? (must be at least 3 games)

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Ɱ73 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will any prominent AI researcher be assassinated before EOY 2030

Yes26¢

No74¢

Yes ≈ 26% chance

Ɱ68 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Open

Will Israel have a government backed AI organization or project named GOLEM by the end of 2026?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ412 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will "Recent AI model progress feels mostly like bu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ50 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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Open

Will AI be considered safe in 2030? (resolves to poll)

Yes73¢

No28¢

Yes ≈ 73% chance

Ɱ241 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Open

By 2028, will any coding copilot look more like "pairing with an LLM" than "smart autocomplete"?

Yes91¢

No9¢

Yes ≈ 91% chance

Ɱ376 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Will "Learnings from starting an AI safety research..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ10 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Will "Requiem for the hopes of a pre-AI world" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ510 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Manifold· Play

Open

When will a Large Language Model beat me at chess?

203067¢

7 outcomes

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Open

Could GPT-4 recursively self-improve to AGI with the right cognitive architecture? [@Altimor, twitter]

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ110 Vol▲ 0pts—