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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 29 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2685 Tech Company Valuations 1009 Big tech & chips 682 Space 564 Science 361 Through 40 Software Engineering Trends 16 Elevator 16 Space Development 10 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,926 markets · page 29 of 122

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "Frontier AI companies probably can't leave the US" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ67 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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‹ Prev1…2728293031…122Next ›

Open

By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?

Yes93¢

No7¢

Yes ≈ 93% chance

Ɱ4.2K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Open

Will anyone die from a weaponized pathogen invented by AI by 2029?

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will there be any Chinese Fable-level models by March 2027, defined as a model with an ECI score of 160 or higher?

Yes88¢

No12¢

Yes ≈ 88% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts7mo

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Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?

Yes69¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 69% chance

Ɱ39.6K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5)

Yes73¢

No27¢

Yes ≈ 73% chance

Ɱ2.5K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Open

By 2035, will "assistant" be primarily used to refer to AI assistants?

Yes49¢

No51¢

Yes ≈ 49% chance

Ɱ365 Vol▲ 0pts9y

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Open

Will GPT 6 be released by September 15th?

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

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Will American opinion of AI improve in 2026, according to Gallup?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ306 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

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Open

Will OpenAI's o4 get above 50% on humanity's last exam?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ8.7K Vol▲ 0pts10mo

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Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

Yes58¢

No42¢

Yes ≈ 58% chance

Ɱ13.4K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will OpenAI publicly state that they DON'T know how to safely align a superintelligence, after 2027?

Yes26¢

No74¢

Yes ≈ 26% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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OpenAI launches physical device when?

Yes49¢

No51¢

Yes ≈ 49% chance

Ɱ218 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2050?

Yes84¢

No16¢

Yes ≈ 84% chance

Ɱ352 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

Best METR 80% Time Horizon before October 2026

≥4h96¢

8 outcomes

Ɱ3.2K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

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Open

Will a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028?

Yes33¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

Ɱ975 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Will OpenAI cease to exist before turning a profit?

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ186 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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AI "devops" #3: Will there be an AI that can manage a small cluster by 2030?

Yes83¢

No18¢

Yes ≈ 83% chance

Ɱ460 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will an AI system discover information theory from first principles before 2031?

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ460 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Daily LLM assistant personal usage exceeds 2 hours for >10% of users on any platform by end-2026?

Yes52¢

No48¢

Yes ≈ 52% chance

Ɱ152 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?

The market heavily doubts OpenAI will pay scientific publishers for content by end of 2025, reflecting a lack of recent deals or public commitments despite earlier industry speculation.

Yes9¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ75.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will an AI-created movie have a rating >=7.0 on IMDB by 2030?

Yes65¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 65% chance

Ɱ958 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will superintelligent AI take over humanity by 2030?

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Ɱ2.9K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

202751¢

6 outcomes

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts8y