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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 30 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2685 Tech Company Valuations 1009 Big tech & chips 682 Space 564 Science 361 Through 40 Software Engineering Trends 16 Elevator 16 Space Development 10 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,926 markets · page 30 of 122

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at the end of 2027?

Yes26¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 26% chance

Ɱ90 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

‹ Prev1…2829303132…122Next ›

Open

Will Nintendo sue an AI company for copyright reasons by 2030?

Yes69¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 69% chance

Ɱ1K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI or Anthropic have a lower valuation before EOY 2030 compared to EOY 2023?

Yes11¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ3.8K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI double the human lifespan within 5 years? (Before february 2030)

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ6.1K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AI be able to write a prescription for medication in the US or a EU member country by 2030?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ131 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI-generated child porn be legalized in the US before 2030?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ7.8K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

GPT-5: 100+ on AMC

Yes91¢

No9¢

Yes ≈ 91% chance

Ɱ755 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI analyze a convo history I have with someone to figure out exactly why someone distanced from you by EOY2026

Yes52¢

No48¢

Yes ≈ 52% chance

Ɱ5 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

In 2028, will I be just as suspicious towards music as I am towards photos? (In regards to AI slop.)

Yes57¢

No43¢

Yes ≈ 57% chance

Ɱ70 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ23.7K Vol▲ 0pts13y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "Unless its governance changes, Anthropic is u..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ450 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Coefficient Giving set up LLM agents with org accounts and a remote worker-like interface by 5/18/27?

Yes63¢

No37¢

Yes ≈ 63% chance

Ɱ511 Vol▲ 0pts9mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Anthropic be profitable in 2028?

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

Ɱ381 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Google owns >20% of Anthropic by EOY 2026?

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Ɱ384 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AI simulate human consciousness by 2100?

Yes75¢

No25¢

Yes ≈ 75% chance

Ɱ301 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Leading AI lab spends $100k+ on remote worker training data before 2028?

Yes86¢

No14¢

Yes ≈ 86% chance

Ɱ293 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

How interesting are my different ideas for LessWrong posts, and when will I post them?

8a) Emergent misalignment and optimisers, >50 upvotes100¢

24 outcomes

Ɱ7.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Is FiveThirtyNine AI better than Metaculus?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ3.6K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Who will be the next Chief Technology Officer of OpenAI?

Other70¢

5 outcomes

Ɱ11.2K Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Manifold· Play

Open

OpenAI memory-using chatbot causes fatal domestic dispute by EOY2026?

Yes39¢

No61¢

Yes ≈ 39% chance

Ɱ5.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ11.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will any data center be attacked to oppose AI development by 2030?

Yes89¢

No11¢

Yes ≈ 89% chance

Ɱ3K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will I (robm) agree with the resolution to the 2028 AI generated movie market?

Yes78¢

No22¢

Yes ≈ 78% chance

Ɱ229 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the AI bubble pop before 2028?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ3.8K Vol▲ 0pts1y