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PredictPal is a neutral, third-party aggregator of public prediction-market data. It is informational only — not affiliated with any platform, and it does not facilitate trading or hold funds. Market data is sourced from each platform’s public API and may be delayed.

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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 4 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2322 Tech Company Valuations 859 Big tech & chips 597 Space 432 Science 258 Through 39 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

815 markets · page 4 of 34

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 115 mph? — ≥115 mph

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$3.3K Vol▼ 1pts5d

Kalshi

Open

‹ Prev123456…34Next ›

Will any LLM score at least 55% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? — At least 55%

Yes87¢

No13¢

Yes ≈ 87% chance

$1.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Jonathan Oppenheim @postquantum win his bet with with @carlorovelli and @quantum_geoff about whether space-time is best described by quantum theory?

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Ɱ21 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Polymarket

Open

Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — ↑5k

The low 17% odds for 5,000+ measles cases reflect a counterintuitive global outbreak context: as outbreaks rage internationally and slip across borders, the U.S. has so far contained them to isolated clusters, making the 5,000-case threshold a steep hurdle after decades of near-elimination.

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

$226K Vol▲ 2pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List? — Before September

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

$44.2K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Polymarket

Open

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

140-15956¢

7 outcomes

$318K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a research base be established in the deep sea before Mars?

Yes71¢

No29¢

Yes ≈ 71% chance

Ɱ767 Vol▲ 0pts14y

Kalshi

Open

Republic of the Congo

The market is pricing a low 15% chance of Ebola crossing from the massive DRC outbreak into the Republic of the Congo, but the real story is that the DRC outbreak has already killed 930 people and is growing, with health workers facing attacks and an experimental vaccine strategy being considered, making cross-border spillover a tangible risk that the odds may understate.

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$80.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

The market's slight uptick to 55% despite recent launch scrubs and a stock slide suggests traders are betting on an eventual reusability announcement rather than immediate technical success, with the key test flight this week as the near-term catalyst.

Yes61¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 61% chance

$119K Vol▲ 2pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will mainstream science be using primarily Bayesian analysis by 2035?

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ1K Vol▲ 0pts9y

Kalshi

Open

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? — Before 2027

OpenAI's rapid model releases and public AGI principles suggest progress, but the market heavily discounts a formal AGI announcement by year-end, likely because recent actions (e.g., the death of the Microsoft agreement) indicate a cautious, incremental approach rather than a definitive breakthrough.

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$236K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by August 30?

Despite a surge in Texas and a confirmed case in New Mexico, the odds of a livestock screwworm case outside Texas by August 30 have dropped 9 points in a week, likely reflecting confidence that containment efforts will keep the pest within current zones for now.

Yes24¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

$1.3K Vol▼ 15pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?

Yes52¢

No48¢

Yes ≈ 52% chance

Ɱ10.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 1, 2026? — Before Sep 1, 2026

Yes37¢

No63¢

Yes ≈ 37% chance

$57.1K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 110 mph? — ≥110 mph

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$3.3K Vol▲ 2pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Which engineering breakthroughs will achieve widespread commercial and societal integration by 2050? [add responses]

Therapies to reverse cardiovascular diseases96¢

90 outcomes

Ɱ86K Vol—

Kalshi

Open

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist in 2026? — Before September

The market is heavily betting against a 2026 confirmation, but the real story is that a formal protocol for disclosure exists (USA Today, Jun 16) and a celebrity endorsement of UFOs (Entertainment Weekly, Jun 10) has not shifted institutional silence, leaving the 1% odds reflecting extreme skepticism rather than any new evidence.

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$2M Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Polymarket

Open

How many Tornadoes in the US in July?

100–12948¢

9 outcomes

$2.3K Vol▲ 2pts5d

Kalshi

Open

Top Coding AI this week

Kimi94¢

9 outcomes

$21.6K Vol▲ 0pts1d

Manifold· Play

Open

AI-based animal communication research leads to new conservation policies by EOY 2030?

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ201 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Polymarket

Open

FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year?

Yes40¢

No61¢

Yes ≈ 40% chance

$1.4K Vol▼ 4pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? — Above 16

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$55.9K Vol▲ 0pts6d

Manifold· Play

Open

By 2030, will the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab find signals of physics beyond the Standard Model?

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ320 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Polymarket

Open

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Despite intense earthquake activity and a major disaster in Venezuela in July 2026, the market firmly dismisses a magnitude 10.0 event—two full points above the largest ever recorded—as nearly impossible. The real story is that severe quakes verify nothing about the odds of a physically implausible magnitude.

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$728K Vol5mo