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Sources: Polymarket · Kalshi · Manifold · PredictIt · Hyperliquid · Myriad · Azuro · Limitless · Futuur · ForecastEx · InsightX · XO Market · Smarkets · SX Bet · Metaculus

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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 4 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2329 Tech Company Valuations 863 Big tech & chips 599 Space 437 Science 259 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

1,292 markets · page 4 of 54

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? — 45%+

Yes66¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 66% chance

$4.2K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

‹ Prev123456…54Next ›

Republic of the Congo

The market is pricing a low 15% chance of Ebola crossing from the massive DRC outbreak into the Republic of the Congo, but the real story is that the DRC outbreak has already killed 930 people and is growing, with health workers facing attacks and an experimental vaccine strategy being considered, making cross-border spillover a tangible risk that the odds may understate.

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$80.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

In Fall 2026, will US computer science departments find their enrollment halved compared to previous years?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ5K Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Waymo launch in Portland, OR by December 31 2026?

Yes16¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

$2.2K Vol▼ 16pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 1, 2026? — Before Sep 1, 2026

Yes37¢

No63¢

Yes ≈ 37% chance

$57.1K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

At the end of 2026, will there be any European model that ranks higher than a model currently on LLM Agent Arena?

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Ɱ107 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? — 65%+

The market heavily discounts OpenAI hitting 65% on Humanity's Last Exam in 2026, despite a string of recent AI breakthroughs in math and coding, because the exam is designed to be extremely difficult and no model has yet come close to that threshold.

Yes14¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

$1.9K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist in 2026? — Before September

The market is heavily betting against a 2026 confirmation, but the real story is that a formal protocol for disclosure exists (USA Today, Jun 16) and a celebrity endorsement of UFOs (Entertainment Weekly, Jun 10) has not shifted institutional silence, leaving the 1% odds reflecting extreme skepticism rather than any new evidence.

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$2M Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the EU publish final AI Act Article 73 incident guidance by Aug 2, 2026?

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

Ɱ101 Vol▲ 0pts7d

Polymarket

Open

Will Claude go down on __ days in July?

9-1167¢

5 outcomes

$62.3K Vol▲ 1pts5d

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? — Above 16

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$55.9K Vol▲ 0pts6d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Google still be a big tech giant by the end of 2030?

Yes94¢

No6¢

Yes ≈ 94% chance

Ɱ2.9K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Polymarket

Open

#1 Searched Passings on Google 2026?

Person 150¢

70 outcomes

$27.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?

551¢

10 outcomes

$25.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ3.5K Vol▲ 0pts6d

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? — 60%+

Yes45¢

No55¢

Yes ≈ 45% chance

$2.7K Vol▲ 28pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? — Before Oct 1, 2026

Anthropic's IPO odds have risen sharply on a string of concrete milestones—settling a major legal hurdle, hiring a Wall Street storyteller, and bankers actively lining up investor meetings—yet the market still prices a 78% chance of no IPO by October 1, suggesting skepticism that the timeline is too tight for a company that has not yet filed publicly.

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

$125K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026?

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$22.4K Vol▼ 0pts11d

Kalshi

Open

Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

$66.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If Elon goes to space within his lifetime, will he go past Low Earth Orbit?

Yes33¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

Ɱ288 Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026?

Yes17¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$3.3K Vol▼ 14pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026? — Oklo

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

$44.1K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a model saturate AISI's "The Last Ones" before August 2026?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts5d