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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 49 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2449 Tech Company Valuations 913 Big tech & chips 628 Space 476 Science 284 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

1,341 markets · page 49 of 56

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Tesla rolls out SAE3+ driving mode only for a model's Hardware 4+ cars by end of 2026

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ677 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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‹ Prev1…4748495051…56Next ›

Major semiconductor shipment from Taiwan to Tier-1 AI country fails delivery by end of 2026

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Ɱ370 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will a human walk on Mars before 2038?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ8.6K Vol▲ 0pts11y

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Will SpaceX announce any sort of deal with Russia or China before the end of 2026?

Yes9¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ265 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will you be able to use AI tools to create believable adult movies by the end of 2026?

Yes68¢

No32¢

Yes ≈ 68% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will "AI pause: the case for ASAP" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ25 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will a human walk on Mars before 2040?

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ6.2K Vol▲ 0pts13y

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Is Gemini going to be used widely as a verb like how Google is used by EOY 2026?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will AI-generated content be nominated for a major award (like the Oscars or Grammys) by the end of 2026

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ324 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Apple release an iPhone that uses a solid-state battery by the end of 2026?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ615 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Elon Musk take humanity to Mars before December 2034?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ948 Vol▲ 0pts8y

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Will AI replace radiologists as the main reporter of clinical images in the USA (without human oversight) before 2050?

Yes87¢

No13¢

Yes ≈ 87% chance

Ɱ2.6K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will OpenAI release a model called GPT-5o in 2026?

Yes3¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ6.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Anthropic publicly release Claude Opus 4.9 by August 31, 2026?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Ɱ1.5K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

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Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ19.2K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open weight AI system below 100B parameters gets 5/6 on IMO 2026?

Yes49¢

No51¢

Yes ≈ 49% chance

Ɱ200 Vol▲ 0pts6d

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Will "How Go Players Disempower Themselves to AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes46¢

No54¢

Yes ≈ 46% chance

Ɱ966 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will OpenAI move out of California by the end of 2026?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ476 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will general purpose AI models beat average score of human players in Diplomacy by 2028?

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will the market for AI inference chips be MUCH larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

Ɱ9 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Elon Musk ever set foot on Mars?

Yes12¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ26.6K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?

The market is a toss-up because while AI-generated video quality is rapidly improving, the definition of 'better than real' remains subjective and hinges on uncanny valley traversal, which recent headlines show no clear progress on.

Yes51¢

No49¢

Yes ≈ 51% chance

Ɱ62K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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A major AI conference will require bomb scanners or other security to prevent a terrorist attack by 2026

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

Ɱ28 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Dario Amodei still be CEO of Anthropic by the end of August 2026?

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts1mo