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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 5 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2354 Tech Company Valuations 875 Big tech & chips 602 Space 445 Science 264 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

820 markets · page 5 of 35

Kalshi

Open

Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $7.36 on Jul 31? — Above $7.36

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$1.4K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

‹ Prev1…34567…35Next ›

Will "It Is Reasonable To Research How To Use Model..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ350 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 29, 2026?

<0.140¢

3 outcomes

$25 Vol▼ 37pts5d

Kalshi

Open

Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

$66.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft by 2049?

Yes52¢

No48¢

Yes ≈ 52% chance

Ɱ210 Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

Yes28¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

$311K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026? — Oklo

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

$44.1K Vol▼ 3pts5d

Polymarket

Open

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$116K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

The market heavily doubts that by end of 2026 researchers will have identified a genuinely novel semantic pattern inside an LLM—one that was unknown to AI and cognitive science in 2006—reflecting a belief that current interpretability tools mainly rediscover known concepts rather than uncover truly alien ones.

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ519K Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026? — Above 13

Yes94¢

No6¢

Yes ≈ 94% chance

$3.3K Vol▲ 1pts12d

Polymarket

Open

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

14–1647¢

7 outcomes

$1.4M Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027?

Yes26¢

No74¢

Yes ≈ 26% chance

Ɱ4.7K Vol▲ 0pts10mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before Nov 1, 2026? — Before November

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$47.6K Vol▲ 1pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$257K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026? — Above 6000

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

$160K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a human walk on Mars before a Nobel Prize is awarded for a discovery relating to dark matter?

Yes68¢

No32¢

Yes ≈ 68% chance

Ɱ2.7K Vol▲ 0pts13y

Polymarket

Open

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

065¢

6 outcomes

$1.2M Vol▲ 1pts8mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Sep 1, 2026? — Before Sep 1, 2026

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

$5.4K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI surpass humans in conducting scientific research by 2030?

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Polymarket

Open

Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$596 Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score? — above 1500

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

$5.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI or AI-assisted math break AES-256 before quantum computing does?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts13y

Polymarket

Open

100kt meteor strike in 2026?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$8.5K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Price to Beat: 0.49

Yes43¢

No57¢

Yes ≈ 43% chance

$632 Vol▲ 0pts5d