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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 51 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2412 Tech Company Valuations 897 Big tech & chips 620 Space 463 Science 271 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

1,325 markets · page 51 of 56

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a major social media platform allow users to hide AI-generated content in 2026?

Yes41¢

No59¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

Ɱ230 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

‹ Prev1…4950515253…56Next ›

Open

Will a human mission successfully land on Mars before the end of 2035?

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ7.4K Vol▲ 0pts9y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026?

N = 10091¢

6 outcomes

Ɱ41.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the best LLM in 2026 have <500 billion parameters?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a Korean win a Nobel prize in one of the science categories in 2025, 2026, or 2027?

Yes41¢

No59¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

Ɱ20 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Anysphere/Cursor make a play into the repository hosting space in 2026?

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Ɱ824 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Who will join Anthropic by end of 2026?

Alec Radford20¢

12 outcomes

Ɱ38.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?

Yes91¢

No9¢

Yes ≈ 91% chance

Ɱ331 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will openai or anthropic have a major LAN party (civ, factorio, EU4, sins of a solar empire) by EOY 2026

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Ɱ83 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will China's Darwin neuromorphic chip create an LLM in 2026?

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

Ɱ75 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a dog walk on the moon before a human walks on Mars?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ538 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

The field is overwhelmingly concentrated on the ≥90% outcome, driven by three consecutive breakthroughs from DeepMind, OpenAI, and Anthropic since April 2026, but the 93% probability leaves little room for the possibility that the benchmark's difficulty proves insurmountable within the year.

≥90%93¢

8 outcomes

Ɱ117K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will a human die in space by 2035?

Yes58¢

No42¢

Yes ≈ 58% chance

Ɱ950 Vol▲ 0pts9y

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Open

comma.ai releases closed-source software by December 31, 2026?

Yes41¢

No59¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

Ɱ20 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will any frontier-class model training run be announced with >$1B total compute cost before 2026-12-31?

Yes63¢

No37¢

Yes ≈ 63% chance

Ɱ50 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

What will be the best GSOBench score by Dec 31, 2026?

70-80%36¢

8 outcomes

Ɱ36.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026?

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Ɱ7.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Anthropic’s GAAP Net Income be Higher in fiscal year 2026 than fiscal year 2025?

Yes73¢

No27¢

Yes ≈ 73% chance

Ɱ86 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will a human will set foot on Mars by the end of 2047?

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Ɱ2.8K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will an AI system similar to Auto-GPT make a successful attempt to kill a human by 2030?

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Will "An analysis of AI-generated content at the Me..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ150 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Will Ron Jeremy live long enough for the first verified instance of human sex in space?

Yes49¢

No51¢

Yes ≈ 49% chance

Ɱ81 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Open

Zuck departs Meta before Elon departs SpaceX

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts5y

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Open

Will a human walk on Mars before 2042?

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

Ɱ2.9K Vol▲ 0pts15y