Skip to content

Discover ✨Ask Topics Community 🎓Learn

PredictPal is a neutral, third-party aggregator of public prediction-market data. It is informational only — not affiliated with any platform, and it does not facilitate trading or hold funds. Market data is sourced from each platform’s public API and may be delayed.

Sources: Polymarket · Kalshi · Manifold · PredictIt · Hyperliquid · Myriad · Azuro · Limitless · Futuur · ForecastEx · InsightX · XO Market · Smarkets · SX Bet · Metaculus

Compare odds across venues·Resolved markets·How it works·Support·Privacy Policy·Terms of Service

Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 52 | PredictPal · PredictPal

💻

Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

🔭 Compare tech odds across venues →

All AI 2382 Tech Company Valuations 888 Big tech & chips 606 Space 457 Science 269 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

1,320 markets · page 52 of 55

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "The nature of LLM algorithmic progress (v2)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ269 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

‹ Prev1…505152535455Next ›

Open

Will Elon Musk cease to be CEO of Tesla before the end of 2026?

Yes6¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AI capable of playing Kerbal Space Program (1 or 2) at a proficient human level exist by the end of 2028?

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ562 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Apple announce it has agreed to acquire Disney by the end of 2026?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ738 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

OpenAI CEO doesn't think existential risk from AI is a serious concern in Jan 2026

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ40 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Apple have on-device TTS that is indistinguishable from a human narrator before 2027?

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be a working Optimus robot on Mars by the end of 2026?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ6.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Elon Musk create a parent company to consolidate his various business interests (e.g., Tesla, SpaceX, etc.) by 2027

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ594 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Tesla P/E ratio above 259 at December 31, 2026

Yes76¢

No24¢

Yes ≈ 76% chance

Ɱ173 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the DC Circuit rule for Anthropic on the merits in the Pentagon supply chain case by Aug 31, 2026?

Yes41¢

No59¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

Ɱ245 Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI release another open source LLM before end of 2026?

Yes70¢

No30¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Ɱ4.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

"Will Google DeepMind release a system where the AI itself (not human engineers) generates improvements to its own code

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ798 Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "Guardian Angels: LLM Personalization for Prod..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ15 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "AI companies should publish security assessments" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ142 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ1.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

SOTA AI at EOY 2026 a reasoning model?

Yes94¢

No6¢

Yes ≈ 94% chance

Ɱ317 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

A family member of Elon Musk reaches Mars by end of 2040

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts14y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "Prompt injection in Google Translate reveals ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ288 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

OpenAI and Anthropic will both hit their 2026 revenue goals in 2026

Yes92¢

No8¢

Yes ≈ 92% chance

Ɱ4.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Elon Musk spend a day in outer space?

Yes46¢

No54¢

Yes ≈ 46% chance

Ɱ554 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will we learn that Anthropic lied to investors about operating profitable in Q2 2026 before 2028?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will any major conference issue a ban on scheduling games with Texas Tech as a result of the Sorsby situation in 2026?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo