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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 54 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2361 Tech Company Valuations 881 Big tech & chips 602 Space 450 Science 266 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

1,309 markets · page 54 of 55

Manifold· Play

Open

This market resolves to PROB equals 10x the percentage of the US human population that declare being romantic involved with some AI in 2050.

Yes62¢

No39¢

Yes ≈ 62% chance

Ɱ265 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

‹ Prev1…52535455Next ›

Open

By the end of 2026, will AI have empowered me to build a bot that can reach the top 500 in the current gen of OU?

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Ɱ51 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will ""The AI Doc" is coming out March 26" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes11¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ320 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will chatGPT (or some other AI program) generate a forum scraper than can adequately scrape any phpBB/vBulletin/Discourse/Invision Powerboard forum by 2026?

Yes64¢

No36¢

Yes ≈ 64% chance

Ɱ68 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will we send another type of animal to Mars before we send a human to Mars?

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

Ɱ980 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

By 2029, AI can provide phone banking services as well as human operators, without annoying customers more than humans?

Yes61¢

No39¢

Yes ≈ 61% chance

Ɱ323 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Starship reach space in 2023? x Will a human land on the moon by 2028?

Starship reaches space in 2023 AND No human lands on the Moon by 202897¢

4 outcomes

Ɱ41K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Will Starship land a human on Mars before California HSR transports a paying passenger to Bakersfield?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ275 Vol▲ 0pts18y

Manifold· Play

Open

By 2028, AI can play new levels of "Angry Birds" better than the best human players.

Yes77¢

No23¢

Yes ≈ 77% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Adept AI be valued at $20B or greater by the end of 2026?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ53 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will Elon Musk spend a week in outer space?

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ441 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ24.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will a human walk on Mars before 2045?

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts18y

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Open

Will Elon Musk spend a month in outer space?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the "AI Longbets Turing Test by 2029" market go above 80% by EOY 2026?

Yes62¢

No38¢

Yes ≈ 62% chance

Ɱ800 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will we get fusion reactors before a human walks on Mars?

Yes55¢

No45¢

Yes ≈ 55% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?

Yes4¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ2.3K Vol▲ 0pts22d

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Open

Will I get punished for blindly running AI-generated code in 2026?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Tim Cook cease to be CEO of Apple before the end of 2026?

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

Ɱ5.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

AI will not cause any catastrophes in 2026

Yes91¢

No9¢

Yes ≈ 91% chance

Ɱ2.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will Tesla release a car using solid-state battery technology by the end of 2026?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ375 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Meek Mill raise $10 million or more for an AI company by the end of 2026?

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Ɱ74 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Generative AI video used as false evidence in criminal trial by Dec 31, 2026?

Yes76¢

No24¢

Yes ≈ 76% chance

Ɱ277 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will Tesla release a petrol/gasoline car before the end of 2026?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts6mo