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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 57 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2494 Tech Company Valuations 931 Big tech & chips 636 Space 496 Science 292 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

1,366 markets · page 57 of 57

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Tesla release a car using solid-state battery technology by the end of 2026?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ375 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

‹ Prev1…555657

Will Meek Mill raise $10 million or more for an AI company by the end of 2026?

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Ɱ74 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Generative AI video used as false evidence in criminal trial by Dec 31, 2026?

Yes76¢

No24¢

Yes ≈ 76% chance

Ɱ277 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Tesla release a petrol/gasoline car before the end of 2026?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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By EOY 2026, will iPhones have an AI that has access to and remembers everything you did on your phone?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ14.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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What Month in 2026 Will OpenAI IPO in?

Does not ipo in 202686¢

8 outcomes

Ɱ6.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Elon Musk tries to make a space station in next 4 years?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ852 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will "Thoughts on the Pause AI protest" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

The market heavily discounts the chance that a post about the Pause AI protest will rank among LessWrong's top 50 annual posts, likely because the provided headlines focus on the unrelated 'No Kings' protest movement, indicating the AI pause protest is niche and without broad external momentum.

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ750 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

The market expects a dramatic tenfold improvement from the current 3% automation rate (ZDNET, Jan 19) to 30-40%, but the wide spread of probabilities suggests deep uncertainty about whether the leap will be incremental or explosive.

30-40%26¢

9 outcomes

Ɱ33.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Which orbital booster will hold the reuse turnaround time record, as of EOY 2026?

Falcon 997¢

5 outcomes

Ɱ7.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Google terminate access to any of its tech to Israel, citing use on Palestinians, by EOY 2026?

Despite the current 11% odds, the real story is that Google has been actively expanding its defense and government AI partnerships, including with the Pentagon, making a policy reversal toward Israel unlikely without a major external trigger.

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ253 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Despite intense media coverage of human-led chart movements (Shakira, AC/DC, Beatles), no headline even hints at an AI song approaching the Hot 100 top 20, leaving the 'Yes' side with only speculative arguments and just five months left.

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ215 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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By 2028, AI can translate a text written in a newly discovered language into English as well as a team of human experts

The real story is not that AI translation is improving, but that the market views deciphering a completely unknown language from scratch — without a Rosetta Stone or cognates — as a qualitatively different and far harder task than translating between known languages, making the 77% No odds a bet on the lack of a fundamental breakthrough by 2028.

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will Elon Musk cease to be CEO of SpaceX before the end of 2028?

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

Ɱ235 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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When will the human population drop below 1 billion

After 210077¢

10 outcomes

Ɱ12.7K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will Mistral AI release a model named "le chaton fat" by EOY 2026

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ90 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Human dies on Mars by 2050

Yes37¢

No63¢

Yes ≈ 37% chance

Ɱ366 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will Microsoft add Google Gemini as a selectable model in Excel Agent Mode by end of 2026?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ98 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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What will be the net sentiment on AI benefits vs drawbacks in the latest YouGov US poll of 2026?

-20 to -10pp41¢

8 outcomes

Ɱ19.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Anthropic highest valuation by end of December 2026

≥$0.8T100¢

10 outcomes

Ɱ8.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will AI be able to generate a realistic map of the US with all 50 states labeled correctly (no typos) by EOY 2026?

Yes82¢

No19¢

Yes ≈ 82% chance

Ɱ563 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Tesla cease to be the most valuable automaker by market cap for any amount of time before the end of 2027?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ356 Vol▲ 0pts1y