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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 6 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

🔭 Compare tech odds across venues →

All AI 2383 Tech Company Valuations 889 Big tech & chips 606 Space 457 Science 269 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

825 markets · page 6 of 35

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI or AI-assisted math break AES-256 before quantum computing does?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts13y

Polymarket

Open

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Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

The market assigns a 4% chance to a VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026, closely tracking the historical base rate. Recent headlines discuss past eruptions or general volcano dangers but contain no credible signs of an imminent giant eruption, explaining the low and slightly declining odds.

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$121K Vol8mo

Kalshi

Open

What will be the price of a foldable iPhone? — At least $2200

Yes58¢

No42¢

Yes ≈ 58% chance

$47.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Michael Nielsen agree by 2030 that private-only funding for science significantly improves the status quo?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ4K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? — Before 2028

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

$206K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Yes24¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

$335K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will anyone claim a $250k vulnerability bounty from Apple's Private Cloud Compute Virtual Research Environment by 2028?

Yes50¢

No50¢

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Ɱ102 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score? — above 1490

Yes70¢

No30¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

$2.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$178K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch before Jan 2027? — Before 2027

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

$21.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$138K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Major space agency funds research into Dyson Swarm technology by 2030?

Yes33¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

Ɱ60 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida before Oct 1, 2026 — Before Oct 1, 2026

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$16.6K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?

Despite ongoing speculation about SpaceX IPO and Dogecoin catalysts, the DOGE-1 moon mission was rescheduled in June 2026 with no new date, keeping the probability of a launch by year-end very low at 12%.

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$872K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?

Makes it to 100028¢

6 outcomes

Ɱ34.1K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026? — Above 16

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$8.1K Vol▲ 0pts12d

Polymarket

Open

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$578K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026?

Yes39¢

No61¢

Yes ≈ 39% chance

Ɱ388 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $3.76 on Jul 31? — Above $3.76

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

$775 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$72K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a Korean win a Nobel Prize in one of the science categories from 2025-2028 inclusive?

Yes46¢

No54¢

Yes ≈ 46% chance

Ɱ56 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Burundi be reported before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

$9.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — ↑7.5k

Despite global outbreaks and local vaccination gaps, the U.S. has not seen a nationwide surge, but the recent 4-point uptick in Yes odds reflects growing concern that imported cases and low vaccination rates in pockets could combine to produce a historically large outbreak.

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$183K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Ɱ7.7K Vol▲ 0pts11mo