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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 7 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2361 Tech Company Valuations 881 Big tech & chips 602 Space 450 Science 266 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

1,309 markets · page 7 of 55

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI beat top human players at Civ6 (without cheating) by EOY 2026?

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ580 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

‹ Prev1…56789…55Next ›

Above 20000 Cyclosporiasis cases in the United States during 2026 — Above 20k

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

$3.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

255¢

6 outcomes

$3.2M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will any country recognize AI or robots as non human persons with legal rights before the end of 2055?

Yes58¢

No42¢

Yes ≈ 58% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will Ungraded Price of the Team Rocket’s Moltres ex Ultra-Premium Collection on Collectr be above $358.19 on 2026-07-31T23:59:00-04:00? — Above $358.19

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

$2.6K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?

App B50¢

14 outcomes

$749 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will China deploy domestic EUV sub-7nm chips for major tech by EOY 2026?

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Ɱ483 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before Dec 1, 2026? — Before December

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$51.3K Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Can an LLM be funny in 2026?

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

Ɱ610 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Above 14000 Cyclosporiasis cases in the United States during 2026 — Above 14k

Yes77¢

No23¢

Yes ≈ 77% chance

$2.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?

Shadowrocket93¢

14 outcomes

$1.1K Vol▲ 3pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the first human step foot on Mars on exactly January 1st 2036?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts9y

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? — Above 170

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

$70.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31? — #10

Yes97¢

No4¢

Yes ≈ 97% chance

$15.2K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

The first religion centred around the prophetic writings and responses of AI or an AI will be founded before Oct 2026

Yes77¢

No23¢

Yes ≈ 77% chance

Ɱ236 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Kalshi

Open

Will any LLM score at least 70% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? — At least 70%

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

$1.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Yes11¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$90.5K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Elon Musk cease to be CEO of Tesla before 2030?

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

In Dec 31, 2026

Despite recent WHO briefings and a cruise-ship outbreak, hantavirus has never triggered a PHEIC and current clusters remain contained, keeping the odds at 5%.

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$1.6M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Iran / Iranian

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$901 Vol▼ 6pts15h

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a human walk on Mars before 2039?

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Ɱ5.4K Vol▲ 0pts12y

Kalshi

Open

Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026? — Last Energy

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$4.8K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? — 50%+

Yes72¢

No28¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

$658 Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the first instance of an AI breakout that cannot be brought back under human control result in more than 1,000,000 deaths?

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Ɱ293 Vol▲ 0pts4y