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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 9 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2354 Tech Company Valuations 875 Big tech & chips 602 Space 445 Science 264 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,585 markets · page 9 of 108

Kalshi

Open

Will an AI generated song be on the Billboard Hot 100? — Before 2027

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

$36K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

‹ Prev1…7891011…108Next ›

Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

$8K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Ben Yan experience AI psychosis in 2026?

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

Ɱ118 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public? — Paramount+

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31? — #10

Yes97¢

No4¢

Yes ≈ 97% chance

$15.2K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Google deploys ads in Gemini web or mobile app by end of 2026

Yes35¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? — Glasses

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$15.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Yes11¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$90.5K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

At the beginning of 2035, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Yes74¢

No27¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Ɱ162 Vol▲ 0pts8y

Kalshi

Open

Will Anthropic release Mythos before Sep 1, 2026? — Before Sep 1, 2026

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$160K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? — 50%+

Yes72¢

No28¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

$658 Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be an AI-powered trader on Manifold in the top 20 profit leaderboard by end of 2026?

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ5.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public? — Netflix

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$35.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?

Moonshot52¢

25 outcomes

$11.8K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

The field is moderately fragmented with nine options above 5%, indicating no consensus on the mechanism; the 'something wonderful' option at 12% suggests many bettors expect an unforeseen breakthrough that defies current categories.

J. Something 'just works' on the order of eg: train a predictive/imitative/generative AI on a human-generated dataset, and RLHF her to be unfailingly nice, generous to weaker entities, and determined to make the cosmos a lovely place.13¢

18 outcomes

Ɱ392K Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? — 70%+

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$971 Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems? — Before October

Yes52¢

No48¢

Yes ≈ 52% chance

$19K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be a well accepted formal definition for honesty in AI by 2027?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ210 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Which company has the #3 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

Anthropic96¢

26 outcomes

$41.4K Vol▲ 0pts4d

Kalshi

Open

Will any LLM score at least 60% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? — At least 60%

Yes55¢

No45¢

Yes ≈ 55% chance

$1.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will avg psychedelics/employee use at OpenAI in 2026 be less than 70% of its use rate in 2025?

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ41 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

No release by July 3197¢

32 outcomes

$371K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Kalshi

Open

Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Aug 1, 2026? — Before Aug 1, 2026

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$34.6K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the top Chinese AI model exceed the top US AI model before 2028?

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Ɱ144 Vol▲ 0pts1y