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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 9 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2467 Tech Company Valuations 920 Big tech & chips 630 Space 486 Science 289 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

845 markets · page 9 of 36

Kalshi

Open

Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Portland, OR before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

$4.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

‹ Prev1…7891011…36Next ›

Will "Building AI Research Fleets" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ164 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Kalshi

Open

Any psychedelic substance for medical use

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

$355K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$15.7K Vol▼ 1pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Which of the Millenium Prize problems will be solved next?

Navier-Stokes48¢

7 outcomes

Ɱ6.2K Vol▲ 0pts14y

Kalshi

Open

Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $7.26 on Jul 31? — Above $7.26

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

$571 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Kalshi

Open

Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030? — Before 2030

Yes54¢

No46¢

Yes ≈ 54% chance

$134K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

210028¢

12 outcomes

Ɱ5.9K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.43 on Jul 31? — Above $0.43

Yes88¢

No12¢

Yes ≈ 88% chance

$2.2K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

If the hard problem of consciousness is solved, what will be true of it?

It will allow to predict in advance whether a given intelligence architecture will be sentient75¢

15 outcomes

Ɱ6.9K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Above 14000 Cyclosporiasis cases in the United States during 2026 — Above 14k

Yes77¢

No23¢

Yes ≈ 77% chance

$2.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

Anthropic29¢

12 outcomes

Ɱ23.4K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Kalshi

Open

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before Dec 1, 2026? — Before December

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$51.3K Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Polymarket

Open

Will there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? — 5000+

Yes89¢

No11¢

Yes ≈ 89% chance

$6.3K Vol5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a Theory of Everything in physics be discovered by AI?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ3.6K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

In Dec 31, 2026

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$1.6M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will there be at least 10000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? — 10000+

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$5.2K Vol▼ 14pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft by 2039?

Yes45¢

No55¢

Yes ≈ 45% chance

Ɱ267 Vol▲ 0pts12y

Kalshi

Open

Best AI in Jul 2026?

Claude98¢

7 outcomes

$440K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?

Yes17¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before year X?

X = 203212¢

11 outcomes

Ɱ6.1K Vol▲ 0pts14y

Kalshi

Open

next Claude Opus debut score? — Above 1470

Yes88¢

No12¢

Yes ≈ 88% chance

$500 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?

Yes19¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

▼ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

next Claude Opus debut score? — Above 1490

Yes51¢

No49¢

Yes ≈ 51% chance

$305 Vol▲ 0pts5mo