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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 9 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

🔭 Compare tech odds across venues →

All AI 2387 Tech Company Valuations 892 Big tech & chips 608 Space 459 Science 269 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

1,320 markets · page 9 of 55

Manifold· Play

Open

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will major institutions call human labor “uncompetitive” vs AI in some domain by end of 2040?

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Ɱ770 Vol▲ 0pts14y

Polymarket

Open

‹ Prev1…7891011…55Next ›

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 27, 2026?

Yes0¢

No100¢

Yes ≈ 0% chance

$1.3K Vol▼ 5pts1d

Kalshi

Open

Grants license

The market heavily favors no approval by year-end, but the real story is that none of the recent headlines mention nuclear regulation or NRC licensing, suggesting no visible policy or industry momentum toward a new combined license in the remaining five months.

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$698K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Price of DDR5-6000 2x16GB RAM at the end of 2026

$500-$60044¢

9 outcomes

Ɱ12K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? — Above 180

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

$106K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ2.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Above 18000 Cyclosporiasis cases in the United States during 2026 — Above 18k

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

$918 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

#2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?

HotSchedules81¢

14 outcomes

$630 Vol▲ 30pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?

Yes46¢

No54¢

Yes ≈ 46% chance

Ɱ368 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.75 million total deliveries in 2026?

Yes45¢

No55¢

Yes ≈ 45% chance

$9.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?

Yes39¢

No61¢

Yes ≈ 39% chance

$1.3K Vol▲ 10pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a Human Die in a Rocket Launch/ and or Space by 2035?

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

Ɱ658 Vol▲ 0pts8y

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? — Above 160

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

$145K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? — 70%+

Yes19¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

$562 Vol▲ 2pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will anyone die from falling debris from a Space X rocket, satellite , or other launch object before the end of 2026?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ969 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Nov 1, 2026? — Before Nov 1, 2026

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

$31.2K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Elon post "Soccer" on X this week?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$606 Vol▼ 16pts14h

Manifold· Play

Open

Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026?

Yes41¢

No59¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

Ɱ3.1K Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Kalshi

Open

Republic of the Congo

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$710 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Elon post "ChatGPT" on X this week?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$524 Vol▼ 39pts14h

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Sesame Street end before a human walks on Mars?

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Ɱ776 Vol▲ 0pts5y

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026? — Above 16

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$6.6K Vol▲ 0pts12d

Polymarket

Open

Will OpenAI announce a necklace-style wearable in 2026? — Necklace

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

$25.4K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will World Model AIs start being used in games in early 2026 and quickly start dominating the Game Development industry?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ9.8K Vol▲ 0pts1mo