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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 93 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2214 Tech Company Valuations 751 Big tech & chips 562 Space 404 Science 205 Through 39 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5

2,317 markets · page 93 of 97

Manifold· Play

Open

A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2028

Yes76¢

No24¢

Yes ≈ 76% chance

Ɱ317 Vol1y

Manifold· Play

Open

‹ Prev1…9192939495…97Next ›

$1T AI training cluster before 2031?

Yes50¢

No50¢

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Ɱ7.4K Vol4y

Manifold· Play

Open

Do OpenAI leadership actually believe they could develop AGI?

Yes82¢

No18¢

Yes ≈ 82% chance

Ɱ390 Vol3y

Manifold· Play

Open

AI market summary causes controversial resolution of M$10,000 or more before 2027?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ313 Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will humanity wipe out AI before the year 2030?

Yes3¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ2K Vol3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "Model Organisms for Emergent Misalignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ24 Vol6mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the "AI Longbets Turing Test by 2029" market go above 80% by EOY 2026?

Yes62¢

No38¢

Yes ≈ 62% chance

Ɱ800 Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will my standard of living 3 years from now be meaningfully affected by AI?

Yes72¢

No28¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

Ɱ877 Vol7mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AI be convicted of a crime in a US court by 2050?

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Ɱ435 Vol—

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Open

Slopotopia: Have we reached peak AI slop in 2025?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ397 Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ753 Vol5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Jeff Maurer think AI is a huge deal by 2046?

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

Ɱ125 Vol19y

Manifold· Play

Open

Anthropic reaches $1T+ valuation before OpenAI?

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

Ɱ2K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Before 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers?

Yes83¢

No17¢

Yes ≈ 83% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol5mo

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Open

Will an AI datacenter be hit with an EMP before 2031?

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ267 Vol4y

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Open

Will an AI be granted legal personhood in any country by end of 2030?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ38.5K Vol4y

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Open

Will Sam Altman leverage OpenAI's success to substantial personal gain?

Yes85¢

No16¢

Yes ≈ 85% chance

Ɱ2.4K Vol—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2075?

Yes13¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ18.1K Vol—

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Open

Will a company lose ownership of an AI due to credible claims of the AI's possible sentience by the end of 2034?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ221 Vol8y

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Open

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

Ɱ967 Vol5mo

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Open

AI: Self-Driving Majority of Miles by 2040

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

Ɱ134 Vol13y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI-assisted coding replace manual coding as the default teaching approach in programming schools by 2036?

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

Ɱ118 Vol9y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?

Yes4¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ2.3K Vol22d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI change its name to ClosedAi?

Yes3¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ3.4K Vol5mo