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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 95 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2345 Tech Company Valuations 872 Big tech & chips 600 Space 443 Science 263 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,576 markets · page 95 of 108

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the CCP block the release of an LLM from a Chinese lab prior to 2028

Yes41¢

No59¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

Ɱ10 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

‹ Prev1…9394959697…108Next ›

Will Anthropic and OpenAI IPO in the same month?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ406 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be a year, before 2040, in which total AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ11.2K Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028?

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

Ɱ12 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AI capable of playing Kerbal Space Program (1 or 2) at a proficient human level exist by the end of 2028?

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Open

Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ562 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

OpenAI CEO doesn't think existential risk from AI is a serious concern in Jan 2026

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ40 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will investment banks be impacted significantly due to the ease of creating custom software tools using AI by 2030?

Yes81¢

No19¢

Yes ≈ 81% chance

Ɱ167 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Open

Will it cost $30 to train a GPT-3 level model in 2030?

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Ɱ1.5K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Open

AI to help design validation systems based on personal blockchains by 2050

Yes69¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 69% chance

Ɱ25 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

Slate Auto EV pickup base model launches below $27,500 excluding subsidies?

Yes69¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 69% chance

Ɱ2.5K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Open

Greta Thunberg joins AI safety/pause movement before 2035?

Yes55¢

No45¢

Yes ≈ 55% chance

Ɱ7.4K Vol▲ 0pts8y

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Open

Will OpenAI announce a power-purchase agreement exceeding 1 GW before 2027?

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ50 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the DC Circuit rule for Anthropic on the merits in the Pentagon supply chain case by Aug 31, 2026?

Yes41¢

No59¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

Ɱ245 Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play🔭 2 venues

Open

Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? [Polymarket]

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will OpenAI release another open source LLM before end of 2026?

Yes70¢

No30¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Ɱ4.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

"Will Google DeepMind release a system where the AI itself (not human engineers) generates improvements to its own code

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ798 Vol▲ 0pts4mo

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Open

Will "Surprising LLM reasoning failures make me thi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes17¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ45 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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Open

Will OpenAI be valued more than a trillion dollar at anytime before 2034?

Yes92¢

No8¢

Yes ≈ 92% chance

Ɱ5.3K Vol▲ 0pts7y

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Open

Will the Catholic Church take an unambiguous stand against AI within 2030?

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ581 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Open

GPT-6 Will be as or more dissapointing than GPT-5

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

Ɱ613 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Will "Guardian Angels: LLM Personalization for Prod..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ15 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a more significant protest calling for a pause in AI than the pause letter by May 2029 (or an actual pause)?

Yes86¢

No14¢

Yes ≈ 86% chance

Ɱ6.5K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Open

Will "AI companies should publish security assessments" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ142 Vol▲ 0pts1y