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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 96 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2345 Tech Company Valuations 872 Big tech & chips 600 Space 443 Science 263 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,576 markets · page 96 of 108

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AI time horizon of 20 hours by January 1st 2027?

Yes88¢

No13¢

Yes ≈ 88% chance

Ɱ2.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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‹ Prev1…9495969798…108Next ›

Significant legal restrictions on AI in the USA by June 2027

Yes81¢

No19¢

Yes ≈ 81% chance

Ɱ973 Vol▲ 0pts10mo

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Will a Chinese AI model rank in the top 10 on the LMArena Text leaderboard on August 1?

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Ɱ406 Vol▲ 0pts8d

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Will OpenAI disappear before 2034?

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

Ɱ2.8K Vol▲ 0pts7y

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Is Nick Cammarata right: LLM will be able to mechanistically audit own circuits and explain ghiblification in 2Y?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ179 Vol▲ 0pts8mo

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Fully automated Tesla charger for model Y in CA by mid 2027

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ221 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

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Anthropic signs compute deal with Meta by end of 2027?

Yes85¢

No15¢

Yes ≈ 85% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ1.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will there be many more cyber vulnerabilities in 2027 due to AI?

Yes70¢

No30¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Ɱ343 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will china have a top model in the next two years

Yes67¢

No33¢

Yes ≈ 67% chance

Ɱ339 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will any two top AI labs merge by EOY 2027?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ556 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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SOTA AI at EOY 2026 a reasoning model?

Yes94¢

No6¢

Yes ≈ 94% chance

Ɱ317 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ3.7K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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AI: Will someone train a $10B model by 2050?

Yes87¢

No14¢

Yes ≈ 87% chance

Ɱ622 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ231 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

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Will AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

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AI "devops" #1: Will there be an AI that can onboard as a dev by 2028?

Yes82¢

No18¢

Yes ≈ 82% chance

Ɱ370 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will "Comparative advantage & AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ100 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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OpenAI and Anthropic will both hit their 2026 revenue goals in 2026

Yes92¢

No8¢

Yes ≈ 92% chance

Ɱ4.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?

Yes82¢

No18¢

Yes ≈ 82% chance

Ɱ23.3K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will "I am worried about near-term non-LLM AI devel..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ32 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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In 2032, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Yes69¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 69% chance

Ɱ2.7K Vol▲ 0pts6y

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Will AI be able to read minds by 2030?

Yes41¢

No59¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

Ɱ911 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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AI model training time decreases fourfold by mid-2027?

Yes59¢

No42¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ210 Vol▲ 0pts11mo