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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 97 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2321 Tech Company Valuations 857 Big tech & chips 596 Space 432 Science 258 Through 39 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,552 markets · page 97 of 107

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Yes55¢

No45¢

Yes ≈ 55% chance

Ɱ121 Vol3y

Manifold· Play

Open

‹ Prev1…9596979899…107Next ›

Before 2027, will an AI product from an American frontier lab readily identify Fetal Alcohol Syndrome in faces?

Yes45¢

No55¢

Yes ≈ 45% chance

Ɱ190 Vol5mo

Manifold· Play🔭 2 venues

Open

Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest by the end of 2026?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ3.7K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI stick to its commitment to the same red lines as Anthropic for the US military using its AI by EOY 2026?

Yes70¢

No30¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Ɱ2.2K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Ɱ970 Vol—

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Open

Will an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027?

Yes37¢

No63¢

Yes ≈ 37% chance

Ɱ473 Vol1y

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Open

Before 2028, will anyone train a GPT-4-level model in a minute?

Yes54¢

No46¢

Yes ≈ 54% chance

Ɱ8.2K Vol1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "The case for satiating cheaply-satisfied AI p..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ7 Vol1y

Manifold· Play

Open

By 2029, will AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 Indie Games?

Yes75¢

No25¢

Yes ≈ 75% chance

Ɱ15.9K Vol2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be an AI Companion app (friend, girlfriend, partner etc.) with 500 Million users before 2035? 🤖❤🧍‍♂️🤝💻

Yes68¢

No32¢

Yes ≈ 68% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol8y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a primarily AI-generated work be nominated for a major entertainment award (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony) in 2026?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ208 Vol5mo

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Open

will research with at least 50% AI generated content win the Nobel Prize by 2030?

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ158 Vol4y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will at least one Anthropic or OpenAI researcher buy one of Cayden Pierce's Mentra smartglasses by EOY2026?

Yes37¢

No63¢

Yes ≈ 37% chance

Ɱ30 Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Amazon fully acquire, acqui‑hire, or own ≥ 50 % of Anthropic before 2029

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ2.1K Vol2y

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Open

Will non-profit funding for AI safety reach 100 billion US dollars in a year before 2030?

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Ɱ562 Vol3y

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Open

Will OpenAI release a competitor to GitHub in 2026?

Yes17¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ663 Vol5mo

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Open

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ18.2K Vol5mo

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Open

Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ2.4K Vol5mo

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Open

Will any BigLaw firm be "completely wrecked" by AI in the next year?

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ785 Vol7mo

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Open

Will "OpenAI #15: More on OpenAI’s Paranoid Lawfare..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ674 Vol6mo

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In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie from a script?

Yes45¢

No55¢

Yes ≈ 45% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol1y

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Open

In 2028, will at least 3.5m Americans be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ3.3K Vol1y

Manifold· Play

Open

AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model?

Yes61¢

No39¢

Yes ≈ 61% chance

Ɱ192 Vol1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a substantial number of legal arbitrations use an ai arbitration by January 1, 2029?

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

Ɱ660 Vol2y