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Sources: Polymarket · Kalshi · Manifold · PredictIt · Hyperliquid · Myriad · Azuro · Limitless · Futuur · ForecastEx · InsightX · XO Market · Smarkets · SX Bet · Metaculus

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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 11 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3903 US elections 2791 Foreign politics 432 Political Leader Tenure 356 Future US Presidents 228 US Political Timelines 204 Leader Tenure Predictions 118 US Political Future 107 Presidential Candidacy 75 Person of the Year Awards 14 Sports & Political Leadership 10

6,167 markets · page 11 of 257

Kalshi

Open

Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Nov 7, 2028? — Before Election Day

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

$59.3K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

‹ Prev1…910111213…257Next ›

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

The market heavily favors No because Iran has repeatedly rejected handing over enriched uranium and is pursuing a transfer to China, making US possession unlikely without a dramatic reversal.

Yes13¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$2M Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

When, where or how will Trump die?

On Earth99¢

79 outcomes

Ɱ66.3K Vol▲ 0pts18y

Kalshi

Open

Will Trump post on Truth Social between 5:00 AM and 5:59 AM ET this week? — 5-6 AM

Yes98¢

No2¢

Yes ≈ 98% chance

$3.5K Vol▲ 69pts6d

Polymarket

Open

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

No meeting by December 3170¢

15 outcomes

$189K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

How many House seats will flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Trump be impeached and removed from office? — Before his term ends

Despite a 19% Yes price, the market is pricing in a much lower chance of Trump's removal than Polymarket's 66% figure for any impeachment during his term, reflecting the extreme difficulty of securing a Senate conviction even if the House impeaches.

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$525K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

NJ-10 House Election Winner

Democratic Party95¢

8 outcomes

$38.7K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Vladimir Putin's approval rating decrease in July 2026?

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

Ɱ2.1K Vol▼ 2pts5d

Kalshi

Open

Will Trump endorse at least 10 people on Truth Social this week? — At least 10

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$6.6K Vol▲ 0pts3h

Polymarket

Open

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Oakland County Winner

Haley Stevens98¢

6 outcomes

$18.7K Vol▲ 0pts8d

Manifold· Play

Open

2028 Democratic nominee?

The field is unusually fragmented for this stage, with no candidate above 23% and the top three summing only 60%, but the biggest recent shift is the consolidation of Maine Democratic attention on Troy Jackson's Senate nomination, which has no direct impact on the 2028 presidential race but signals party organizational focus on swing-state Senate races (Reuters, Jul 25).

Other23¢

16 outcomes

Ɱ352K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027? — Before 2027

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$36.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$41.7K Vol▼ 2pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Biden, Trump, Putin, or Xi die first?

Biden62¢

4 outcomes

Ɱ28.4K Vol▼ 2pts10d

Kalshi

Open

How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

Below 19317¢

11 outcomes

$2.2M Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in July?

Yes0¢

No100¢

Yes ≈ 0% chance

$11.8K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Democrats win Iowa, Texas or both in the 2026 US Senate elections?

Yes39¢

No61¢

Yes ≈ 39% chance

Ɱ671 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Trump say "UFO / UAP" before Jul 27, 2026?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$7.8K Vol▲ 0pts1d

Polymarket

Open

TN-06 Republican Primary Winner

Johnny Garrett73¢

8 outcomes

$4.6K Vol▼ 1pts11d

Kalshi

Open

Alaska Governor-Senate combo

Democrats sweep37¢

4 outcomes

$29.5K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Kamala Harris be elected President in 2028?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? — December 31, 2026

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$677K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Aug 1, 2026? — Before Aug 1, 2026

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$181K Vol▲ 0pts5d