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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 14 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3965 US elections 2858 Foreign politics 458 Political Leader Tenure 364 Future US Presidents 233 US Political Timelines 206 Leader Tenure Predictions 121 US Political Future 108 Presidential Candidacy 78 Person of the Year Awards 15 Sports & Political Leadership 10

743 markets · page 14 of 31

Manifold· Play

Open

Brazil 2026 Election: US congratulates Brazil’s 2026 election winner within 24 hours?

Yes26¢

No74¢

Yes ≈ 26% chance

Ɱ152 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

‹ Prev1…1213141516…31Next ›

Ségolène Royal

Yes7¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$1.8K Vol8mo

Kalshi

Open

Friedrich Merz

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$18.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Brazil 2026 Election: Will Donald Trump publicly endorse any presidential candidate in either round?

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

Ɱ118 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner

Ricardo Ferraço63¢

16 outcomes

$12.9K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Kalshi

Open

Giorgia Meloni

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$7.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes89¢

No12¢

Yes ≈ 89% chance

$22K Vol▼ 1pts8mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Who will be the Prime Minister of Australia at some point in their life?

Jim Chalmers50¢

43 outcomes

Ɱ8.3K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Jens-Frederik Nielsen

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$9.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Yes94¢

No6¢

Yes ≈ 94% chance

$203K Vol▲ 1pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

How will Keir Starmer leave office?

Resigns99¢

4 outcomes

Ɱ23K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$45K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

François Ruffin

Yes25¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

$1.2K Vol▼ 1pts8mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a new UK political party gain 50+ seats by the end of 2028? (In the house of commons)

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ2.2K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Mark Carney leave Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2027?

Carney's high economic approval and active international diplomacy, per recent headlines, paint a picture of a stable prime minister comfortable in office, making a sudden departure before January largely priced out at 7%.

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$14.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić73¢

53 outcomes

$21.9K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

Mette Frederiksen

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$12.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee

Person D50¢

49 outcomes

$10.1K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Andy Burnham be PM at the time the next UK general election is announced?

Yes75¢

No25¢

Yes ≈ 75% chance

Ɱ150 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Christopher Luxon

The market is essentially a coin flip because Luxon is actively pursuing major trade and defense deals, signaling a strong commitment to staying in office, but the tight odds reflect residual uncertainty about whether he might step down before 2027 for personal or political reasons.

Yes46¢

No54¢

Yes ≈ 46% chance

$12.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Next Prime Minister of Greece?

Kyriakos Mitsotakis90¢

61 outcomes

$11.7K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will I have to show my ID to get full access to Discord or Twitter at the time of the next UK election?

Yes84¢

No16¢

Yes ≈ 84% chance

Ɱ260 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will Pedro Sánchez leave Prime Minister of Spain before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

$32K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held

PL88¢

39 outcomes

$18.5K Vol▲ 2pts2mo