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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 15 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3937 US elections 2828 Foreign politics 447 Political Leader Tenure 362 Future US Presidents 231 US Political Timelines 204 Leader Tenure Predictions 118 US Political Future 107 Presidential Candidacy 77 Person of the Year Awards 14 Sports & Political Leadership 10

11,084 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 15 of 417

Kalshi

Open

Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act? — Before Aug 8, 2026

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

$83.6K Vol▼ 5pts13d

Manifold· Play

Open

‹ Prev1…1314151617…417Next ›

2028 Republican nominee?

Trump's continued influence, demonstrated by his intercession in a House race and disaster aid allocation (NYT, ABC News, Jul 3), keeps his former running mate JD Vance as the clear front-runner, but the field remains fragmented with many candidates below 5%, suggesting the race is far from settled.

JD Vance42¢

19 outcomes

Ɱ952K Vol▲ 0pts2y

InsightX

Open

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

The market has already resolved to 100% because repeated clashes—including water cannon and physical confrontations—escalated into what the consensus treats as a military clash, making further debate moot.

Yes100¢

No0¢

Yes ≈ 100% chance

$2.3M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Smarkets

Open

2026 Swedish General Election - Most Seats

The field is extremely concentrated, with the Social Democrats at 97% after a June 2026 poll showed the centre-left opposition holding its lead, a sharp reversal from the 2022 cliffhanger where the right-wing bloc narrowly won.

Social Democrats97¢

3 outcomes

£2 Vol▼ 0pts1mo

Futuur

Open

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo75¢

4 outcomes

▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

South Carolina Senate winner?

The Republican nominee is all but assured to win the general election, but the crowded GOP primary—with Sanford, Fry, and Norman entering (Fox News, Jul 23)—creates uncertainty over which Republican will emerge, not whether a Republican wins.

Republican party87¢

2 outcomes

$586K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$106K Vol▼ 0pts4d

InsightX

Open

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Despite tensions and war preparations, the 12% invasion probability reflects a market that sees China as still unwilling to pay the prohibitive military and economic costs of invading Taiwan by 2027, especially as Beijing may use hybrid attacks to avoid outright invasion.

Yes12¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$2.2M Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ862 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Smarkets

Open

Andy Burnham Exit Date - Year — Andy Burnham Exit Date - 2026

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

£2 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Jul 2026?

The field is extremely concentrated on a single outcome—zero visits—with 98% odds, reflecting a near-consensus that Trump will not visit Mar-a-Lago in July 2026, driven by a lack of recent travel evidence and a broader trend of reduced property visits.

098¢

5 outcomes

$533K Vol▲ 1pts6d

Polymarket

Open

Iran leadership change by August 31?

Yes6¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$48.3K Vol▼ 4pts1mo

InsightX

Open

Will Alberta join the US?

The odds are near zero because there is no serious political movement, no secessionist referendum, and no U.S. annexation offer; the recent headlines instead show Alberta cooperating with other Canadian provinces on agriculture, alcohol sales, and pipelines.

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$2.2M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Trump announce he is running for President in the 2028 election?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ149 Vol▼ 1pts2y

Smarkets

Open

State Senate Elections — Texas Senate Election Winner

The Texas Senate race has tightened dramatically, with Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico now effectively tied, driven by Paxton's fundraising surge and Talarico's pivot to attacking Paxton's scandals.

Republican56¢

2 outcomes

£1 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$27.4K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Polymarket⚡ Moving fast

Open

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Despite the 96% 'No' odds, the market reflects a stable deterrence equilibrium rather than a low-risk assessment, as Taiwan and its allies actively prepare for a potential invasion while diplomatic channels remain open.

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$39M Vol▼ 0pts5mo

InsightX

Open

Crude Oil all time high by...?

The field is extremely diffuse with only 22% of probability assigned to the top two candidates, and the biggest recent shift is a sharp drop in Brent crude from above $100 to $96.89 on July 24, unwinding the risk premium that had built up during the US-Iran war (Crypto Briefing, Jul 24).

December 3114¢

2 outcomes

$2.1M Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Smarkets

Open

Quebec General Election Winner

PQ71¢

3 outcomes

£1 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ever become the President of the USA?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Aug 1, 2026? — Before Aug 1, 2026

With only six days until the Aug 1 deadline, the odds of a proof-of-citizenship voting law passing are nearly zero, reflecting both the legislative calendar and recent judicial blocks.

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$598K Vol▲ 0pts6d

InsightX

Open

Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

The market is extremely fragmented with no candidate above 1%, and the biggest recent shift is the continued erosion of confidence in a US-Iran deal following the US-Saudi nuclear deal and the fragile state of the cease-fire (NYT, Jul 25; BBC, Jul 23).

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf1¢

2 outcomes

$2M Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Elon Musk # tweets in July 2026?

The field is moderately concentrated, with the top three buckets capturing 70% of the probability, but the wide range of candidates (51) and the 10% chance on 760-799 suggest meaningful uncertainty; the biggest recent shift is the rise of the 840-879 bucket, likely fueled by Musk's legal setbacks and high-profile online spats that historically spur posting sprees.

840-87928¢

51 outcomes

$981K Vol▲ 11pts5d

Smarkets

Open

German State Elections — Berlin State Election Winner

SPD4¢

6 outcomes

£1 Vol▲ 0pts1mo