Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
13,244 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 336 of 417
Yes ≈ 99% chance
13 outcomes
Yes ≈ 6% chance
The market is skeptical because Donald Brodie is not a high-profile figure and the alleged pardon-hunting by wealthy donors (Forbes, Nov 2025) does not appear to involve him; the 40% 'Yes' odds likely reflect general uncertainty around Trump's pardon patterns rather than any specific expectation for Brodie.
Yes ≈ 50% chance
4 outcomes
Despite being a fundraising powerhouse, Josh Shapiro ranks 7th in a recent Democratic 2028 poll and has shown no national campaign activity, keeping the probability of a 2026 announcement extremely low.
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Despite recent political rhetoric around impeachment and the 25th Amendment, the market heavily discounts removal due to historically high barriers and no clear scandal, but the talk itself marks a shift in elite discourse.
Yes ≈ 23% chance
Despite being a two-term Democratic governor in a red state, Andy Beshear's current focus on state-level disaster recovery and Medicaid policy, with no national political activity, explains the low 11% odds of a presidential announcement.
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Yes ≈ 37% chance
Rahm Emanuel's recent campaign trail activity for a House candidate and his continued commentary on Israel suggest he is politically active, but there is no evidence he is laying groundwork for a presidential run, making the 12% odds a reflection of his name recognition rather than any concrete signal.
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 59% chance
Blake Masters has lost three consecutive elections (two Senate bids and a House race), and his political brand is tied to Trump and Thiel at a time when the GOP is moving past 2020 grievances, making a future presidential run extremely unlikely.
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance